EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Brussels, 2.6.2021
SWD(2021) 501 final
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
STATISTICAL ANNEX
providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes
Accompanying the document
Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden
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Table of Contents
1. Belgium
2. Bulgaria
3. Czechia
4. Denmark
5. Germany
6. Estonia
7. Ireland
8. Greece
9. Spain
10. France
11. Croatia
12. Italy
13. Cyprus
14. Latvia
15. Lithuania
16. Luxembourg
17. Hungary
18. Malta
19. The Netherlands
20. Austria
21. Poland
22. Portugal
23. Romania
24. Slovenia
25. Slovakia
26. Finland
27. Sweden
This Statistical Annex provides background data relevant for the assessment of Member States’ 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes. For each Member State, it contains the following tables:
Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data – real GDP growth and main expenditure components, output gap, employment, unemployment, labour productivity, inflation, GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and the net borrowing/lending vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The figures from the Stability or Convergence Programme are shown side-by side with those of the Commission 2021 spring forecast (for which the cut-off date was 30 April 2021), thus highlighting possible differences in the macroeconomic scenario underlying the Stability or Convergence Programme.
Table 2a (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant indicators that are used for fiscal guidance at this stage. It also show the standard Stability and Growth Pact indicators.
Table 2b (General government budgetary position) shows data on the main revenue and expenditure variables and the deficit in the Stability or Convergence Programme, in comparison to the Commission forecast. The table also includes a number of additional indicators used for the assessment of the budgetary projections in the Programme.
Box: Indicators used in the assessment of the Stability and Convergence Programmes
Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a measure of the year-on-year change in the general government’s budgetary position. It may serve to measure the impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand in an economy, as well as the speed at which the underlying budgetary situation converges towards fiscal targets. Using the same indicator to gauge two different concepts has been appropriate under the assumption that changes in government expenditure were funded entirely by national revenue sources and debt financing, without large external transfers. However, in the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the additional fiscal impulse provided by the EU budget as the related national expenditure is exactly offset by corresponding revenue from the EU.
The fiscal stance reported in Table 2a aims to assess the economic impulse stemming from fiscal policies, nationally financed as well as financed by the EU. It measures the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, but including changes in expenditure financed by the RRF and other EU grants), but, taking into account the exceptional circumstances created by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures, relative to the 10-year average potential growth rate.
Where .
The expenditure aggregate comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure G minus interest expenditure I), net of cyclical unemployment benefits U and one-off expenditure. ∆RM stands for the incremental budgetary impact of revenue measures (other than one-offs) excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures.
The table also presents a fiscal stance as computed in normal times that is without excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures.
Table 2b also monitors the growth rate of nationally financed net (primary) expenditure. In general, the net expenditure aggregate is calculated as:
The aggregate is very similar to the one used for the fiscal stance, but excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget. Table 2b presents an aggregate where G is calculated as general government expenditure excluding/including changes in crisis-related temporary emergency measures, and ∆RM representing the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures excluding/including crisis-related temporary emergency measures.
The table 2b also presents two additional versions focussing on the growth of nationally financed net current expenditure
(one including and one excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures).
Table 3a (General government debt developments) shows year-on-year general government debt developments and provides a breakdown of the change in the debt ratio as per the change in the primary balance, the snowball effect (reflecting the relationship between GDP growth and interest payments) and the stock-flow adjustment (i.e. other elements that have an impact on the debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording or the net accumulation of financial assets).
Table 3b (Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators) contains information on debt sustainability indicators over the short, medium and long terms (the so-called S0, S1 and S2 indicators). The estimates reported in the table are based on the Commission 2021 spring forecast and the updated estimates for ageing-related costs published in the May 2021 Ageing Report.
Table 4.1a (Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme) presents the main discretionary measures adopted/announced in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic recession, as reported by the Member State. The table distinguishes between temporay and non-temporairy measures and provides the annual profile of measures contained in the Programme and their impact on revenues and expenditures.
Table 4.1b (Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme) presents the main guarantee schemes in place, in particular those adopted/announced in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic recession, as reported by the Member State. The table also provides the take-up of those guarantee schemes, if the information is available.
Table 4.2a (RRF – Grants) presents data on grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility included in the Programme’s revenue projections, their cash disbursements, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those grants.
Table 4.2b (RRF – Loans) presents data on cash disbursements and repayments of loans from the Recovery and Resilience Facility included in the Programme’s projections, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those loans.
The differences between the projections in the 2021 Programmes and the Commission 2021 spring forecast may reveal in some cases differents assumptions vis-à-vis the macroeconomic outlook and the Member State’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP).
As regards the absoption of grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the Commission 2021 spring forecast used a number of technical assumptions. By default, the forecast assumes a linear absorption of the entire RRF allocation of each Member State, from mid-2021 until end-2026, with the proceeds being directed towards gross fixed capital formation and capital transfers. For Member States where sufficiently detailed information was available, the forecast deviated from that working assumption for relevant elements. For example, this included cases where there was already available information on the expected time profile of RRF-funded expenditures, or cases where certain expenditure components had already been established in more detail.
1. Belgium
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
2. Bulgaria
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
3. Czechia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
4. Denmark
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
5. Germany
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
6. Estonia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
7. Ireland
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
8. Greece
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
9. Spain
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
10. France
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
11. Croatia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
12. Italy
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position*
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
13. Cyprus
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
14. Latvia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
15. Lithuania
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
16. Luxembourg
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
17. Hungary
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
18. Malta
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
19. The Netherlands
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
e
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
20. Austria
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
21. Poland
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
22. Portugal
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
23. Romania
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
24. Slovenia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
25. Slovakia
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
26. Finland
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans
27. Sweden
Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts
Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance
Table 2b: General government budgetary position
Table 3a: General government debt developments
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans