92002E2868

WRITTEN QUESTION E-2868/02

by Christopher Huhne (ELDR) to the Commission

(11 October 2002)

Subject: Growth forecasting record

1. Will the Commission give the forecast (or forecasts) made by each Member State for their real growth rate of GDP in the ensuing financial year for each year of the last ten years?

2. Will the Commission also show the consensus forecast of independent forecasters (for example as published by Consensus economics) at the time of the publication of the official forecast, and compute for each Member State an average difference between official forecast and independent forecast?

Will the Commission provide a short commentary on the lessons if any from this exercise?

Joint answerto Written Questions E-2865/02, E-2866/02, E-2867/02 and E-2868/02given by Mr Solbes Mira on behalf of the Commission

(4 November 2002)

The Commission does not systematically collect the various forecasts made during the year by Member States for growth and budget balances. It is therefore also difficult to assess their forecast accuracy.

Very much attention is paid to the growth and budgetary projections included in the Stability and Convergence Programmes which the Member States submit to the Commission in accordance with Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and co-ordination of economic policies(1). These projections are assessed in the light of the Commission's own view on the economic situation and outlook, but also of those provided by other international and private entities.

A comprehensive study of the track record of the Commission forecasts is, however, available as an Economic Paper of the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, published in October 1999: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/economic_papers/economicpapers137_en.htm

(1) OJ L 209, 2.8.1997.