52021SC0501

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Brussels, 2.6.2021

SWD(2021) 501 final

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

STATISTICAL ANNEX

providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes

Accompanying the document

Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden

{COM(2021) 501 final} - {COM(2021) 502 final} - {COM(2021) 503 final} - {COM(2021) 504 final} - {COM(2021) 505 final} - {COM(2021) 506 final} - {COM(2021) 507 final} - {COM(2021) 508 final} - {COM(2021) 509 final} - {COM(2021) 510 final} - {COM(2021) 511 final} - {COM(2021) 512 final} - {COM(2021) 513 final} - {COM(2021) 514 final} - {COM(2021) 515 final} - {COM(2021) 516 final} - {COM(2021) 517 final} - {COM(2021) 518 final} - {COM(2021) 519 final} - {COM(2021) 520 final} - {COM(2021) 521 final} - {COM(2021) 522 final} - {COM(2021) 523 final} - {COM(2021) 524 final} - {COM(2021) 525 final} - {COM(2021) 526 final} - {COM(2021) 527 final}

Table of Contents

1. Belgium

2. Bulgaria

3. Czechia

4. Denmark

5. Germany

6. Estonia

7. Ireland

8. Greece

9. Spain

10. France

11. Croatia

12. Italy

13. Cyprus

14. Latvia

15. Lithuania

16. Luxembourg

17. Hungary

18. Malta

19. The Netherlands

20. Austria

21. Poland

22. Portugal

23. Romania

24. Slovenia

25. Slovakia

26. Finland

27. Sweden

This Statistical Annex provides background data relevant for the assessment of Member States’ 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes. For each Member State, it contains the following tables:

Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data – real GDP growth and main expenditure components, output gap, employment, unemployment, labour productivity, inflation, GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and the net borrowing/lending vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The figures from the Stability or Convergence Programme are shown side-by side with those of the Commission 2021 spring forecast (for which the cut-off date was 30 April 2021), thus highlighting possible differences in the macroeconomic scenario underlying the Stability or Convergence Programme.

Table 2a (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant indicators that are used for fiscal guidance at this stage. It also show the standard Stability and Growth Pact indicators.

Table 2b (General government budgetary position) shows data on the main revenue and expenditure variables and the deficit in the Stability or Convergence Programme, in comparison to the Commission forecast. The table also includes a number of additional indicators used for the assessment of the budgetary projections in the Programme. 1

Box: Indicators used in the assessment of the Stability and Convergence Programmes

Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a measure of the year-on-year change in the general government’s budgetary position. It may serve to measure the impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand in an economy, as well as the speed at which the underlying budgetary situation converges towards fiscal targets. Using the same indicator to gauge two different concepts has been appropriate under the assumption that changes in government expenditure were funded entirely by national revenue sources and debt financing, without large external transfers. However, in the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the additional fiscal impulse provided by the EU budget as the related national expenditure is exactly offset by corresponding revenue from the EU.

The fiscal stance reported in Table 2a aims to assess the economic impulse stemming from fiscal policies, nationally financed as well as financed by the EU. It measures the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, but including changes in expenditure financed by the RRF and other EU grants), but, taking into account the exceptional circumstances created by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures, relative to the 10-year average potential growth rate. 2 3

Where .

The expenditure aggregate comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure G minus interest expenditure I), net of cyclical unemployment benefits U and one-off expenditure. ∆RM stands for the incremental budgetary impact of revenue measures (other than one-offs) excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures.

The table also presents a fiscal stance as computed in normal times that is without excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures.

Table 2b also monitors the growth rate of nationally financed net (primary) expenditure. In general, the net expenditure aggregate is calculated as:

The aggregate is very similar to the one used for the fiscal stance, but excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget. Table 2b presents an aggregate where G is calculated as general government expenditure excluding/including changes in crisis-related temporary emergency measures, and ∆RM representing the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures excluding/including crisis-related temporary emergency measures.

The table 2b also presents two additional versions focussing on the growth of nationally financed net current expenditure

(one including and one excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures).

Table 3a (General government debt developments) shows year-on-year general government debt developments and provides a breakdown of the change in the debt ratio as per the change in the primary balance, the snowball effect (reflecting the relationship between GDP growth and interest payments) and the stock-flow adjustment (i.e. other elements that have an impact on the debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording or the net accumulation of financial assets).

Table 3b (Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators) contains information on debt sustainability indicators over the short, medium and long terms (the so-called S0, S1 and S2 indicators). The estimates reported in the table are based on the Commission 2021 spring forecast and the updated estimates for ageing-related costs published in the May 2021 Ageing Report.

Table 4.1a (Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme) presents the main discretionary measures adopted/announced in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic recession, as reported by the Member State. The table distinguishes between temporay and non-temporairy measures and provides the annual profile of measures contained in the Programme and their impact on revenues and expenditures.

Table 4.1b (Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme) presents the main guarantee schemes in place, in particular those adopted/announced in response to the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic recession, as reported by the Member State. The table also provides the take-up of those guarantee schemes, if the information is available.

Table 4.2a (RRF – Grants) presents data on grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility included in the Programme’s revenue projections, their cash disbursements, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those grants.

Table 4.2b (RRF – Loans) presents data on cash disbursements and repayments of loans from the Recovery and Resilience Facility included in the Programme’s projections, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those loans.

The differences between the projections in the 2021 Programmes and the Commission 2021 spring forecast may reveal in some cases differents assumptions vis-à-vis the macroeconomic outlook and the Member State’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP).

As regards the absoption of grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, the Commission 2021 spring forecast used a number of technical assumptions. By default, the forecast assumes a linear absorption of the entire RRF allocation of each Member State, from mid-2021 until end-2026, with the proceeds being directed towards gross fixed capital formation and capital transfers. For Member States where sufficiently detailed information was available, the forecast deviated from that working assumption for relevant elements. For example, this included cases where there was already available information on the expected time profile of RRF-funded expenditures, or cases where certain expenditure components had already been established in more detail.

1. Belgium

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

2. Bulgaria

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

3. Czechia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

4. Denmark

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

5. Germany

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

6. Estonia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

7. Ireland

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

8. Greece

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

9. Spain

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

10. France

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

11. Croatia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

12. Italy

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position*

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

13. Cyprus

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

14. Latvia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

15. Lithuania

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

16. Luxembourg

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

17. Hungary

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

18. Malta

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

19. The Netherlands

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

20. Austria

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

21. Poland

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

22. Portugal

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

23. Romania

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

24. Slovenia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

25. Slovakia

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

26. Finland

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

27. Sweden

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance

Table 2b: General government budgetary position

Table 3a: General government debt developments

Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators

Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1

Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme

Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants

Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans

(1)

For the Stability or Convergence Programmes, the output gap used for the cyclical adjustment is recalculated by the Commission services based on the macroeconomic scenario in the Programmes using the commonly agreed methodology.

(2)

Crisis-related emergency measures generally aim at addressing the public health situation and compensating workers and firms for income losses due to lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions. These measures are mostly of a temporary nature, but their impact is contingent on the development of the health situation. While useful in the initial phase of the crisis, these measures are likely to be less efficient to support the recovery when the health related emergency gradually wanes.

(3)

The computations of the fiscal stance based on the Stability or Convergence Programmes assume no impact of crisis related temporary emergency measures in 2023 and beyond.