This document is an excerpt from the EUR-Lex website
Document 52012DC0626
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol)
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol)
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol)
/* COM/2012/0626 final */
REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL PROGRESS TOWARDS ACHIEVING THE KYOTO OBJECTIVES (required under Article 5 of Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol) /* COM/2012/0626 final */
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1........... Summary. 3 2........... Actual progress
1990-2010. 5 2.1........ GHG emissions trends in
Member States. 5 2.2........ GHG intensities and
emissions per capita in 2010. 6 2.3........ GHG emissions in 2010
compared to 2009. 7 2.4........ Emission trends in the
main sectors. 8 3........... Projected progress
towards meeting the Kyoto target 9 3.1........ Projections of GHG
emissions. 9 3.1.1..... EU-27. 9 3.1.2..... EU-15. 9 3.1.3..... EU-12. 10 3.2........ State of implementation
of the Union's climate change policy. 12 3.3........ Implementation of the EU
Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) 15 3.3.1..... Second trading period
(2008-2012) 15 3.3.2..... Use of JI and CDM by
operators. 15 3.4........ Projected use of Kyoto
mechanisms by Union's governments. 15 3.5........ Projected use of carbon sinks. 16 4........... Meeting the 2020
target 16 4.1........ Union's GHG emission
reduction target by 2020. 16 4.2........ Policies contributing to
the fulfilment of targets. 16 4.3........ Projected distance to
targets. 17 5........... Adaptation to climate
change. 19 6........... Situation in the
Union's candidate countries. 19 1. Summary On track to reach the Kyoto target,
2008-2012 In 20101, total EU-27 greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions without emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use
Change and Forestry (LULUCF) were 15% lower compared to 1990 levels. Emissions increased
by 2.4% compared to 2009. This partly compensates the significant decrease of
GHG emissions in 2009 as a result of the economic recession (-7.3%). Leaving the
exceptional drop in 2009 aside, 2010 GHG emissions continue to follow the general
decreasing trend seen from 2004 onwards. Additionally, according to the provisional 2011 data2, EU-15 and EU-27 GHG emissions decreased by 3.6% and 2.5% in 2011 compared
to 2010. Based on these estimates, EU-15 emissions are 14% below the base-year
level. EU-27 2011 emissions are approximately 18% below the 1990 level. The
change of GDP in 1990-2011 was 43% for EU-15 and 48%
for EU-27, and around 1.5% between 2010 and 2011. While
the economy has grown significantly, emissions in both the EU-27 and the EU-15
have been decreasing, which demonstrates that decoupling of economic growth
from GHG emissions has been progressing steadily since 1990. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-15 has
agreed to reduce its GHG emissions by 8% by 2008–12 compared to base year
levels. Based on the latest available inventory data of 20101, total
GHG emissions in the EU-15 were 11% below base year emissions without LULUCF. All
in all, projections3 of total GHG emissions as shown in Figure 1
indicate that the EU-15 is well on track to reach its Kyoto target. The
estimate shows that the target is likely to be overachieved. Figure 1:
Actual and projected emissions (MtCO2-eq.) for EU-15 Note: The arrows are based on 2008-2012 average
and therefore do not correspond exactly to 2010 values of projected emissions. Source:
European Commission, EEA According to
the GHG projections submitted in 2011 and updated in 2012, six EU-15 Member
States (Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Sweden, the United Kingdom) are on
track to achieve their individual GHG reduction targets domestically as shown
in Figure 5. Taking into account the planned use of the Kyoto flexible
mechanisms, use of unused allowances from the EU ETS new entrants reserve and
carbon sinks as well as additional policy measures, only one Member State (Italy)
is not on track to achieve their targets. In most of the twelve Member States which acceded
the Union as from 2004, emissions are projected to slightly increase between
2009 and 2012. However, nine of them that have a Kyoto target are projected to
meet or over-achieve their commitments using only existing policies and measures.
Slovenia is estimated to meet its target when all the existing and planned
measures, including the purchase of Kyoto credits, deliver as expected. New measures to reach the ambitious Europe
2020 target The climate and energy package4
adopted in 2009 provides an integrated and ambitious package of policies and
measures to tackle climate change until 2020 and beyond. It forms one of the
five headline targets of the Europe 2020 jobs and economic growth strategy. From
2013 onwards the total effort of the Union to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by 20%5 by 2020 compared to 1990 will be divided between the EU ETS
and non-ETS sectors. The GHG data presented in the
previous section refer to the scope of the first commitment period under the Kyoto
Protocol and cannot be directly used to assess progress towards the Union's
domestic commitment by 2020 because of its broader sectoral coverage. Preparations for the implementation of the
GHG reduction commitment by 2020 are almost completed. With regard to the EU
ETS, substantial progress in preparing for Phase 3 (2013-2020) has been
made since the last progress report in October 2011, including on the
auctioning platform, on the Single Union Registry and on adoption of harmonised
rules on monitoring, reporting, accreditation and verification. As far as the Effort Sharing Decision, which regulates GHG
emissions in sectors outside the EU ETS by setting binding annual GHG emissions
targets for each Member State (MS) is concerned, work on implementing measures is
continuing, especially in relation to determining the absolute values for
Member States' targets and the compliance system which will be put in place for
monitoring Member States' action annually and helping them to take any
necessary corrective measures if they fail to meet their targets. The 20% GHG reduction objective is rooted
in the Europe 2020 strategy for jobs and smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth adopted by the European Council in June 2010. The emission reduction
target is one of the five headline targets. As noted in the Commission's Annual
Growth Survey 2011, in the field of climate change mitigation the existing and
planned measures are not yet sufficient to reach the 2020 headline targets. Many
Member States need to make additional efforts to meet their obligations under
the Effort Sharing Decision. Figure 2 illustrates the considerable emission reduction effort required between business as usual for
2020 and the Union's 2020 targets (-20% and -30% respectively). In 2011, EU-27
emissions (including international aviation emissions) were 16% below 1990
level. Business as usual based on the PRIMES/GAINS model includes implemented Union
and national policies as of mid-2009 and covers the Climate and Energy Package
emissions scope. Business as usual would lead to an emissions cut of around 15%
between 1990 and 2020. According to the latest available GHG projections
which include the implementation of the Climate and Energy Package, the EU
would collectively meet its 2020 target (see Figure 6 for the details).
However, only 13 MS can expect to meet their 2020 commitments with policies already
in place, further 8 MS could deliver on their targets when their additional policies
and measures deliver as expected. The remaining 6 MS need to design additional
policies in order to accomplish their targets and/or make use of the flexibilities
provided for in the Climate and Energy Package. Figure 2:
Actual and projected emissions (MtCO2-eq.) for EU-27 Note: PRIMES/GAINS projections3 used to project
changes in emissions over the period 2010-2020 Source: European Commission, EEA 2. Actual
progress 1990-2010 2.1. GHG
emissions trends in Member States The overall EU GHG emission trend is
dominated by the two largest emitters, Germany and the United Kingdom,
accounting for about one third of total EU‑27 GHG emissions. These two
Member States have achieved total GHG emission reductions of 483 million tonnes
CO2-equivalents compared to 1990. The main reasons for the favourable trend in
Germany were increasing efficiency in power and heating plants and the economic
modernisation of the five new Länder after German reunification. The reduction
of GHG emissions in the United Kingdom was primarily the result of liberalising
energy markets and the subsequent fuel switches from oil and coal to natural gas
in electricity production and N2O emission reduction measures in the
production of adipic acid. France and Italy were the third and fourth
largest emitters in 2010, respectively accounting for 11.1 % and 10.6 % of
total EU‑27 emissions. France's emissions were 6.6 % below 1990 levels in
2010. In France, large reductions were achieved in N2O emissions
from adipic acid production, but CO2 emissions from road transport
and HFC emissions from consumption of halocarbons increased considerably
between 1990 and 2010. Italy's GHG emissions were 3.5 % below 1990 levels in
2010. Emissions increased since 1990 primarily from road transport, electricity
and heat production and petroleum refining but the country's total GHG
emissions have decreased significantly (7.2 %) since 2008. Poland and Spain are the fifth and sixth
largest emitters in the EU‑27, accounting for 8.5 % and 7.5 % of total EU‑27
GHG emissions in 2010. Poland decreased GHG emissions by 12.4 % between 1990
and 2010, and by 28.9 % since the base year, which in Poland's case is 1988.
The main factors for decreasing emissions in Poland — as for other new Member
States — were the decline of energy inefficient heavy industry and the overall modernisation
of the economy in the late-1980s and early 1990s. The notable exception was
transport (especially road transport) where emissions increased. Spain
increased emissions by 25.8 % between 1990 and 2010 and by 22.8 % since the
base year. This was largely due to emission increases from road transport,
electricity and heat production, and manufacturing industries. In 2010, six Member States had GHG
emissions above base year levels (mostly 1990) whereas the remaining nineteen Member
States had emissions below base year levels. The percentage changes of GHG
emissions from the base year to 2010 range from -56% (Romania) to +23% (Spain).
Cyprus and Malta do not have emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol. In those two Member States, emissions in 2010 were above 1990 levels. 2.2. GHG
intensities and emissions per capita in 2010 Emissions in both the EU-27 and the EU-15
have been decreasing while the economy has grown significantly. Figure 3
demonstrates that decoupling of economic growth from GHG emissions has been
progressing steadily since 1990. Figure 3: Evolution
of GDP, GHG emissions and emission intensity (ie. ratio of greenhouse gas
emissions produced to GDP) – Index (1990 = 100) Source: EEA, DG ECFIN (Ameco database), Eurostat Between 1990 and 2010, in the EU-27 GDP
grew by 46 % while emissions decreased by 15 % and in the EU-15 GDP increased
by 41% with a 11 % reduction of GHG emissions. Between 2009 and 2010 GDP
increased by 2% and emissions by 2.4%. Therefore, emission intensity also
increased. However, it can be noted that the emission intensity in 2010 was better
than the one in 2008. Between 1990 and 2010 GHG intensity
decreased in all MS. The deepest decrease was observed in Estonia (-75%),
Slovakia (-72%), Romania (-63%), Lithuania (-62%), Bulgaria (-62%). The smallest
changes took place in Portugal (-18%), Cyprus (-18%), Italy (-21%), Spain (-22%)
and Malta (-23%). In 2010, in the EU-27 emissions per
capita were at the level of 9.4 tCO2-eq. Per capita emissions decreased
by 2.4 tCO2-eq., which is equivalent to a 21% reduction compared to
1990. However, 2010 GHG emissions per capita continues to show significant
differences across Member States ranging from 5.4 (Latvia) to 24.1 (Luxembourg)
tCO2-eq. per capita. They are to a large extent determined by the
energy intensity and the energy mix of each country. Also per capita emission
trends differ greatly between Member States. Since 1990, largest per capita
reductions have been made in Member States in central and Eastern Europe,
Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, France and Belgium. In
six Member States per capita emissions have increased since 1990. Per capita
emissions in these Member States, however, are lower than the Union's average
except for Greece and Cyprus (see also figure 2 of the Staff Working Paper
(SWP)). 2.3. GHG
emissions in 2010 compared to 2009 European GHG emissions increased in 2010 (+2.4%)
due to the return to economic growth – after European GHG emissions drastically
decreased in 2009 mainly because of the economic recession (-7.3%) – and a
colder than usual winter. Among the industrial sectors, the largest
combined increase stemmed from manufacturing industries and construction
(including iron and steel process emissions) and from public heat and
electricity production. Higher industrial activity during 2010, after the
strong contraction in 2009, appears to have led to a sharp increase in final
energy demand and emissions in these sectors. The sector that contributed most
to higher emissions in the EU in 2010 was, however, ‘residential and
commercial’, which broadly falls outside the scope of the EU ETS. The key
reason for the 43 million tonnes increase in emissions there was the cold
winter in 2010, which increased demand for heating, particularly by households.
The continued strong increase in renewable energy use and the improved carbon
intensity of fossil fuels - underpinned by strong natural gas consumption -
prevented the increase in GHG emissions from being higher. About 56 % of the EU increase in GHG emissions was accounted for by
Germany (+3%), Poland (+5%) and the United Kingdom (+3%). In percentage terms,
growth in emissions was highest in Estonia (+25%), Finland (+13%), Sweden
(+11%) and Latvia (+10%). Contrastingly, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Romania,
Cyprus and Ireland continued reducing GHG emissions in 2010. The increase in
emissions in 2010 was partly driven by the economic recovery from the 2009
recession in many European countries, which had itself caused substantial
emission reductions in 2008 and 2009 in all Member States. Final energy demand
increased by 3.7 % in 2010, outpacing the increase in economic output (2.0 %). 2.4. Emission
trends in the main sectors Figure 4 shows that energy supply and use
including transport are the most important sectors accounting for 78% of total
Union's emissions in 2010. Agriculture is responsible for 10% of total GHG
emissions, industrial processes for 7% and waste for 3%. Since 1990, the decreases
in energy, agriculture, industrial processes and waste have been partially
offset by significant increases in the transport sector (for further details
see also the SWP). However, total transport emissions have also been decreasing
since 2007. Figure 4:
Change in EU-27 GHG emissions by sector and share of sectors in total GHG
emissions Source: 2012 national inventories 3. Projected
progress towards meeting the Kyoto target 3.1. Projections
of GHG emissions 3.1.1. EU-27 In the Kyoto commitment period, total EU-27
GHG emissions are projected to be about 18.2% below base-year levels. This estimate
is based on MS projections3 and takes into account existing polices
and measures. The projected decline is even bigger when the effect of
acquisitions of credits via the Kyoto mechanisms by governments, carbon sinks
and additional measures are accounted for (for more details see tables 7a and
7b in the SWP). 3.1.2. EU-15 The aggregate projections for all sectors
estimate that total GHG emissions of the EU-15 are likely to be 11.3% below
base-year levels during the Kyoto commitment period. When including, (1) the government use of the Kyoto
mechanisms which is expected to deliver an additional 1.8% emission reduction,
and (2) the total removal of carbon sinks
due to activities referred to in Art. 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol in the
EU-15 corresponding to a 1.4% reduction, the EU-15 is projected to reduce its
emissions even further. When also taking into account allowance and emission reduction
credits trade under the EU ETS, the projected overall reduction of GHG
emissions could be up to 12.6% in the Kyoto commitment period compared to base
year levels. Figure 5 presents the gaps between
projected non-ETS emissions and the respective targets for the sectors
concerned per each Member State. This analysis indicates that existing policies
and measures would be sufficient for the EU-15 to meet its part of the
collective Kyoto target attributed to the non-ETS sectors. However, all 15 Member States will need to meet their
respective individual commitments under the joint fulfillment agreement under
the Kyoto Protocol. According to the information presented, two Member States are
at risk of not meeting the target. 3.1.3. EU-12 Aggregate emissions based on existing
domestic policies and measures from the 12 Member States which joined the Union
after 2004 are projected to be very close to 2010 emissions and will be about 37.9%
below their base year levels in the Kyoto commitment period. Slovenia is the
only Member State out of the EU-12 that intends to invest in Kyoto mechanisms. Bulgaria,
the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia
intend to account for carbon sinks. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia have sold or plan to sell part
of their unused Assigned Amount Units (AAUs). Figure 5:
Relative gaps between GHG projections in the non-ETS sectors for the commitment
period and the respective 2008-2012 targets based on GHG projections and the use of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. Negative
and positive values respectively indicate overdelivery or shortfall in
percentage of base-year emissions. Note:
For Ireland, the use of
unused ETS allowances from the new entrants reserve is taken into account in
the non-ETS target Source: EEA, European Commission 3.2. State
of implementation of the Union's climate change policy The European Climate Change Programme
(ECCP) Across the EU-27, an assessment of Member
States' policies and measures identified eight Common and Coordinated
Policies and Measures (CCPMs) that are projected to deliver significant GHG
emissions savings in the Union. The largest savings can be expected from
the EU ETS Directive (2003/87/EC) as revised and the Renewable Energy Directive
(2009/28/EC) promoting electricity produced from renewable energy sources. In
the transport sector, the fuel quality legislation and reduction of CO2
from cars are of significant importance. Further, energy demand will be reduced
through the implementation of the Directives on the energy performance of
buildings, eco-design requirements, energy taxation and the promotion of
co-generation (combined heat and power). Finally, use of the Kyoto Protocol's
flexible mechanisms is projected to deliver significant GHG emissions savings. In addition to these eight key policies and
measures, a further five CCPMs were identified that are also predicted
to deliver important savings across the Union. These five policies are the
Landfill Directive (99/31/EC), the efficiency standards for new hot-water
boilers, the Directive on labelling of appliances (2010/30/EU), the Industrial
Emissions Directive (2010/75/EU) and the Motor Challenge programme, aimed at
improving the energy efficiency of industrial electric motors. A Report from the Commission on the application, effects and adequacy
of the Regulation (EC) 842/2006
concludes that this Regulation has already achieved some reduction of emissions
of F-Gases compared to a scenario without the
Regulation41. Together with the Directive on mobile air-conditioning
systems (2006/40/EC), this Regulation has the potential to achieve a
significant reduction of projected emissions by 2020
and beyond. The top eight policies account for 92% of
the total expected savings attributed to CCPMs in the EU-27. This underlines
the importance of these key policies in helping Member States to achieve their
emission reduction commitments. Recent developments Since the adoption of the climate and energy package, work on
implementation measures is ongoing. Before the end of 2012, about twenty new
legal acts and documents have to be in place in order to ensure proper
functioning of the EU ETS as revised as well as to prepare the ground for the
implementation of national GHG emission targets in the non-ETS sectors. The
revised EU ETS Directive provides for the centralisation of the EU ETS
operations into a single European Union registry while at the same time
improving its security. This new registry is operated by the Commission and
replaces all EU ETS registries previously hosted in the Member States. The regulation
establishing a Union Registry was adopted by the Commission in November 2011. The
full activation of the Union Registry, including the migration of over 30,000
EU ETS accounts from national registries, took successfully place in June 2012. The
Commission has for a second time amended the list of sectors which are deemed
to be exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage, adding mineral wools to
the list. The Commission currently assesses whether
Member States' plans to implement the Commission decision on free allocation of
allowances to industry are in compliance with the rules. As
of 2012, aviation emissions are subject to a cap in the EU ETS, a change which
alone increases the emissions coverage by approximately 10%. Substantial work
has gone into implementing this change, including on monitoring and
facilitating compliance and on preparing and coordinating, where necessary, action
related to enforcement. The Auctioning
Regulation is currently under review, notably as regards the auction time
profile with a view to ensuring the orderly functioning of the market and
addressing supply-demand imbalances that have been caused by the transition to
Phase 3 and been exacerbated by the existence of a surplus of allowances built
up as a consequene of the economic crisis. In this context the Commission has
also proposed a Decision to clarify the provisions of the EU ETS Directive regarding
its own powers to adapt the timing of auctions of emission allowances in such
exceptional circumstances. The European Commission authorised requests
from 7 Member States to grant transitional free allocations of allowances to
their power sectors beyond 2012. These decisions were taken under strict application
of provisions in the Directive which allow, on certain conditions, for
time-limited and gradually decreasing exemptions from the general rule of
auctioning. Work on enhanced
rules for monitoring and reporting of GHG emissions by operators covered by the
EU ETS as well as requirements for the verification of emission reports and the
accreditation and supervision of verifiers is ongoing and aims for improved
harmonisation of the applied rules. Two new regulations were adopted in June
2012 and will be complemented by guidance documents in time for the third ETS
period. Preparation of the implementing measures under the Effort Sharing
Decision is ongoing and currently focuses on determining the absolute values
for Member States' annual emissions targets in 2013-2020 and setting rules for
transfers of annual emission allocations among Member States as well as
ensuring their transparency. The corresponding legal texts are expected to be
adopted at the end of 2012 or in early 2013. In addition, the revision of the EU Monitoring Mechanism and the
proposal for accounting of land use, land use change and forestry are currently
under negotiation in Council and Parliament. These proposals are driven by the
need to address in particular the reporting and accounting needs of the climate
and energy package, Europe 2020 Strategy, new requirements deriving from the Durban
decisions as well as lessons learnt so far. In June 2012, the European Parliament, the Council and the EU
Commission reached a political agreement on the Energy Efficiency Directive.
This directive will contribute to achieving Europe's
20% energy efficiency target for 2020. Work on the implementating measures for Regulation (EC) 443/2009
related to CO2 from cars and Regulation (EU) 510/2011 related to CO2
from light commercial vehicles is ongoing. The
implementation of the cars measures is more advanced than that for light
commercial vehicles but the latter will be consistent with the former. The
Commission has now made proposals to implement 2020 CO2 targets for cars and light commercial vehicles which will now be considered
in the Council and Parliament. On the mainstreaming of climate action into EU policies the
Commission proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)
2014-2020 includes for the first time an objective to spend at least 20% of the
overall budget on climate related action. In particular, in Cohesion Policy, a
stand-alone thematic objective has been proposed for climate change adaptation
in addition to the low carbon thematic objective and a minimum floor of 20%/6%
for the more developed regions / less developed regions for measures to
increase energy efficiency has been included. New greening measures are also
foreseen in the proposed revised Common Agricultural Policy and the Rural
Development Fund, and 35% of “Horizon 2020”, the EU Framework Programme for
Research and Innovation should be allocated to climate relevant research and
innovation. As a new element, the LIFE Programme will have a sub-programme
dedicated to Climate Action, representing around 25% of the total LIFE
Programme. The Commission will ensure that progress towards the proposed 20%
climate spending objective will be tracked and reported on. Finally, a staff working document (SWD(2012)
5 final) assessing the impacts of further reducing
emissions from 20% to 30% by 2020 in each of the Member States was issued in
early 2012. Legal acts recently adopted Implementation of the climate and energy package: (1)
EU ETS Auctioning – early auctions: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1210/2011 amending Regulation (EU) No
1031/2010 in particular to determine the volume of greenhouse gas emission
allowances to be auctioned prior to 2013. (2)
EU ETS Registry –
Union Registry: Commission Regulation (EU) No
1193/2011 establishing a Union Registry for the trading period commencing on 1
January 2013, and subsequent trading periods, of the Union emissions trading
scheme (3)
EU ETS Harmonised allocation rules: Commission Decision 2011/278/EU8 determining transitional
Union-wide rules for harmonised free allocation of emission allowances. (4)
EU ETS Monitoring, reporting, verification
and accreditation rules: Commission Regulation (EU) No 600/2012 of 21 June 2012 on the
verification of greenhouse gas emission reports and tonne-kilometre reports and
the accreditation of verifiers and Commission Regulation (EU) No 601/2012 of 21
June 2012 on the monitoring and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. (5)
EU ETS Use of international credits: The Commission Regulation (EU) No 550/201110 on
determining certain restrictions applicable to the use of international credits
from projects involving industrial gases. Other: (6)
Aviation and the EU ETS: Commission Regulation (EU) No 394/201111 amending
Regulation (EC) No 748/2009 on the list of aircraft operators. (7)
CO2 and cars: Commission Regulation (EU) No 63/201113 laying down
detailed provisions for the application for a derogation from the specific CO2
emission targets. (8)
CO2 and vans: Commission Implementing Decision 2012/99/EU - on the detailed
arrangements for the collection of premiums for excess CO2 emissions from new
light commercial vehicles. 3.3. Implementation
of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) 2012 will be the last year of the second
trading period of the EU ETS (2008-2012). In 2013, a substantially revised
system will begin its operation. 3.3.1. Second
trading period (2008-2012) The EU-wide average annual cap for
2008-2012 amounts to 2081 million allowances per year. In 2011, EU ETS covered
more than 12,000 power plants and manufacturing installations. Verified
emissions of greenhouse gases from these installations dropped to 1904 million
tonnes of CO2-eq. in 2011, more than 2% below the 2010 level and almost 9%
below the cap. This was despite an expanding economy in Europe. The level of compliance by the
installations was very high. Only less than 1% of the installations
participating in the EU ETS did not surrender allowances covering all their
2011 emissions by the deadline of 30 April 2012. 3.3.2. Use
of JI and CDM by operators As part of the second National Allocation
Plans (NAPs), a limit was established by each Member State for the maximum use
of project-based credits by operators (Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM)). In total and on average, up to 278 million CERs
or ERUs may be used per year by ETS installations from all Member States in the
second trading period, which corresponds to 13.4 % of the EU-wide cap for this
period. In 2008-2011, operators used 555 million CERs or ERUs which was 7% of all units surrendered for compliance.
From 2013 onwards the rules for the use of JI and CDM credits will be revised
as set in the EU ETS Directive.16 3.4. Projected
use of Kyoto mechanisms by Union's governments Ten Member States of the EU-15 as well as Slovenia
have decided to purchase and use international credits from Kyoto mechanisms to
reach their Kyoto targets. Together, these EU-15 Member States would acquire up
to 76 Mt CO2-eq. per year for compliance under the first
commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. This would represent approximately 1.8
percentage points towards the EU-15 Kyoto target of -8 % (see Table 12 in the SWP). These 10 Member States together have
decided to invest up to € 3.0 billion to acquire units through JI, CDM or AAU trading. Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Ireland and Belgium allocated the
largest budgets (€ 611 million, € 500
million, € 382 million, € 290
million and € 276 million, respectively) for the five-year commitment period. In Slovenia, the budget has been estimated for € 80 million. However,
given the impact of the recent recession on GHG emissions MS might not need as
many international credits as initially estimated. So far, this hypothesis
seems to be supported by the fact that the amount of international credits actually
delivered to Member States' accounts in registries only amounts to about 32 Mt
CO2-eq. As regards AAUs sold by Member States,
according to data in the registries about 68 Mt CO2-eq. have been
transferred so far, while some contracted amounts may not be delivered yet. Bulgaria,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia reported
that they intend to further sell AAUs. One Member State (UK) has legislated
that it would retire any surplus AAUs between the Kyoto target and the UK
unilateral ‘carbon budget’ after the 1st commitment period. 3.5. Projected
use of carbon sinks In addition to the policies and measures
targeting various sources of GHG emissions, Member States can make use of
carbon sinks. The information provided so far indicates that total net
sequestration during the commitment period from afforestation and reforestation
activities under Art. 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol will be about 14.8 MtCO2 per year for
the EU-15. In addition, the use of activities under Art. 3.4 is projected to
contribute 30.6 MtCO2 per year of the commitment period in the EU-15. Taking in addition into account contributions from EU-12, the
accounting of these activities will amount to 25.8 and 38.4 MtCO2
per year (for details see Table 13 in the SWP). Together, activities under Art. 3.3 and 3.4
in the EU-15 Member States are projected to reduce emissions by 57.9 Mt CO2
per year of the commitment period. This is equivalent
to a bit more than 1 percentage point of the EU-15 reduction commitment of 8 % during
the 1st commitment period compared to base year emissions. 4. Meeting
the 2020 target 4.1. Union's
GHG emission reduction target by 2020 The Climate and
Energy Package set a 20% GHG emission reduction target for EU-27 by 2020
compared to 1990, which is equivalent to -14% compared with 2005. This effort will
be divided between the EU ETS and non-ETS sectors as follows: (a)
21% reduction in EU ETS sector emissions by 2020
compared to 2005; (b)
reduction of around 10% by 2020 compared to 2005
for the sectors that are not covered by the EU ETS. These greenhouse gas
emissions reduction targets were included in the Europe 2020 strategy for
smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. 4.2. Policies
contributing to the fulfilment of targets The emission caps from 2013 until 2020 are defined in the Effort
Sharing Decision (ESD) and the revised ETS Directive. The EU ETS is a market
based mechanism covering over 12,000 installations. The ESD obliges Member States to limit their GHG emissions between 2013 and
2020 according to a linear trajectory with binding annual targets which will
ensure a gradual move towards agreed 2020 targets. The ESD regulates GHG
emissions in all sectors except installations and aviation covered by the EU
ETS, LULUCF and international maritime shipping. In the ESD sectors, complementary Union-wide policies will contribute to reaching the
targets by Member States, such as the binding targets for renewable energy,
energy efficiency measures, the emission performance standards for new light-duty
vehicles, the CCS Directive, F-Gases Regulation or the Fuel Quality Directive. Also
the Commission's and Member States' efforts to facilitate the demonstration and
deployment of innovative technologies in reducing GHG emissions such as under
the SET Plan and the NER300 could play a role here. Under the ESD, Member States will be responsible for implementing
these Union-wide policies and measures in these sectors, and, if necessary, for
defining additional national policies and measures to limit their emissions. A robust
reporting and compliance system will be put in place for monitoring Member
States' action and help them make any necessary corrective measures if they
fail to meet their targets. 4.3. Projected
distance to targets Despite the positive trends towards KP
commitment achievement shown by 2008-2012 projections, more efforts and additional policies will be necessary to
achieve the Union's 2020 objectives. The flexibilities provided for in the ESD
and the revised ETS Directive, such as the use of international credits, will
also contribute to the attainment of the targets. Figure 6 shows first estimates
of the gap between non-ETS GHG emissions projections by 2020 and 2020 targets. According to these provisional projections
still much effort will be needed by individual Member States to deliver on their
2020 targets set for the non-ETS sectors. Only 13 Members States can expect to
reach these commitments with existing policies and measures. Further 8 MS could
meet their targets with planned additional policies and measures. 6 Member States
are unlikely to be able to deliver on their commitments even with the
additional measures foreseen for now. However, as regards EU-27, the estimates
show that the overall non-ETS target would be delivered. This analysis does not
yet take into account the use of flexibilities provided for in the ESD, such as
the use of international credits. In order to pave the way for a smooth
compliance with the 2020 target, it is imperative that Member States not only
ensure timely delivery of emissions reductions of existing policies and
measures but also accelerate the development and full implementation of their
additional policies and measures as well as consider other options including
the use of international credits. More detailed country-specific recommendations
were issued by the Council in July 2012 as part of the 2012 European Semester. Figure 6: Projected gap to 2020 targets
for non-ETS sectors. Negative and positive values
respectively indicate overdelivery and shortfall in percentage of 2005
emissions. Note:
(1) The underpinning data
for this calculation are based on MS projections for 2020 non-ETS
emissions, gap-filled and adjusted where necessary3, as well as
estimated 2020 non-ETS targets for MS (still subject to some changes). Several Member States (CZ, EE, FI, LT, NL, PL) have not provided
specific national projections for non-ETS sectors, so the share of these
emissions had to be estimated. (2)
The assessment provided in
this figure should be treated as indicative, due to differences in methodology and assumptions. Some data, such as the Greek and
Lithuanian projection for instance deviate substantially from the projections
made for the 'EU energy trends to 2030 - update 2009' (Publication by the
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy in collaboration with
Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG, ISBN 978-92-79-16191-9). Source: EEA, European Commission 5. Adaptation
to climate change Reducing emissions in the coming decades can
still avoid large scale dangerous climate change. However, even if the world
keeps the average annual global temperature increase to below 2 degrees
Celsius, European citizens and business will be affected by the adverse effects
of inevitable climate change and therefore will have to adapt cost-effectively.
The European Commission adopted the White
Paper on Adaptation to Climate change in April 2009 outlining the Union's
policy framework for action to improve Europe's resilience to climate change. The
33 actions announced in the White Paper are now in the final stages of
implementation (see Table 15 in SWP). Climate-ADAPT, the European Climate Change Adaptation Platform (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/)
for information sharing, was successfully launched in March 2012. The number of
hits per day is close to 1000. Climate-Adapt fosters a
better understanding of the state of play of research on adaptation and
adaptation policies, projects, programmes and frameworks. Adaptation case
studies and good practices are made available, as well as a mapping of national
and international activities. The European Union's Adaptation Strategy
is under preparation and foreseen for adoption in Spring 2013. The general aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to identify
actions at EU level that will contribute to making Europe climate resilient,
and to do so at the lowest possible cost. This means enhancing
the EU's preparedness and capacity to respond to the impacts of climate changefocusing in particular on transboundary issues and sectors that are closely integrated at EU level through common policies. 6. Situation
in the Union's candidate countries Between 199017 and 2010 Croatia's GHG emissions decreased by 9%, and compared
to 2009 they decreased by 2%. However, according to the
GHG projections included in the 5th National Communication, Croatia
is projected to face difficulties with achieving its Kyoto target with the
current set of policies and measures. Iceland's GHG emissions
between 1990 and 2010 increased by 30% and in 2010 were 3.4% lower than in 2009.
Taking into account decision 14/CP.7, and according to the GHG projections included
in the 5th National Communication, Iceland is on track to meet its
Kyoto target. Turkey’s GHG emissions
increased by 115% between 1990 and 2010 and 8.7% between 2009 and 2010. While
Turkey is an Annex I Party, it has no GHG target under the current 1st
commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. An up-to-date inventory of GHG emissions in
the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is not available.
Between 1990 and 2005 total GHG emissions decreased by around 19%. For more information on GHG emissions in
the Union's candidate countries please see section 2 of the SWP.