COMBINED EVALUATION ROADMAP / INCEPTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT

This combined evaluation roadmap / Inception Impact Assessment aims to inform citizens and stakeholders about the Commission's work in order to allow them to provide feedback on the intended initiative and to participate effectively in future consultation activities. Citizens and stakeholders are, in particular, invited to provide views on the Commission's understanding of the current situation, problem and possible solutions and to make available any relevant information that they may have, including on possible impacts of the different options.

Title of the initiative

European statistics on population (ESOP)

Lead DG – responsible unit

AP Number (to be added after the political validation)

ESTAT – Unit F.2. Population and migration

Likely Type of initiative

Legislative

Indicative Planning

Q2 2022

Additional Information

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population/overview

This combined roadmap/Inception Impact Assessment is provided for information purposes only. It does not prejudge the final decision of the Commission on whether this initiative will be pursued or on its final content. All elements of the initiative described by this document, including its timing, are subject to change.

A. Context, evaluation, problem definition and subsidiarity check

Context

Population statistics is undergoing a period of major changes. In most Member States, there is a move away from the ‘traditional’ census involving a full enumeration every ten years, towards the increased use of data from administrative sources allowing more data to be produced annually and in a more timely manner. In parallel, the demand for these statistics is growing in the context of increased migration flows 1 , impact of ageing and needs for more regional and local information for the assessment of the impact of population changes. In addition, various population data collections are undertaken under different EU legal bases that neither allow flexibility nor respond sufficiently to the recent users’ and compilers’ needs. Population statistics is part of a major programme for the modernisation of social statistics undertaken in close cooperation with the Member States. In 2016, the Commission communicated on the modernisation of social statistics which first milestone was the adoption of Regulation (EU) 2019/1700 of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a common framework for European statistics relating to persons and households, based on data at individual level collected from samples. In 2017, the  European Statistical Committee endorsed the Budapest Memorandum that stated the need for annual statistics on the size and on certain social, economic and demographic characteristics of the population.

Evaluation

The evaluation and impact assessment will be carried out back-to-back. They will seek to combine the fact-finding and stakeholder consultations on the performance of the existing legal framework with an assessment of impacts of proposed possible updates to the extent possible. This is justified with the recognised need for modernisation of population statistics and the stakeholder feedback obtained during the modernisation of social surveys. The objective of the existing legal bases 2 is to ensure high quality population data on Europe in line with the statistical principles and quality criteria applied to European statistics 3 . While this objective remains relevant in the future, the evaluation should assess if population statistics continues to be adequate and to provide the necessary evidence base for the purposes of EU policies and broader data needs. The evaluation will cover: (1) the European Statistical System (ESS) composed of the EU Member States and the EFTA countries; (2) all relevant statistical legal bases and their implementing acts; (3) all mandatory and voluntary data collections on population, demography and migration of weekly, monthly, annual and decennial frequency; (4) at least two full data production cycles for each data collection, including work under population and housing censuses 2011 and 2021; (5) potential data needs that may not be satisfied; (6) the use of modern statistical practices and standards in the domain, including on data confidentiality and protection; as well as (7) the administrative costs and burden and the potential to reduce them. All evaluation criteria under the EU Better regulation agenda will be addressed. 

Problem the initiative aims to tackle

Population statistics are highly relevant for policy purposes on the impact of demographic change and under the political priority on An economy that works for people, as well as but also on A new push for European democracy and Protecting our European way of life. 

Eurostat currently undertakes several separate population data collections of different periodicities and under different legal bases, covering demographic, migration and census topics. There are also parts of the city statistics that relate to population topics and several voluntary data collections, e.g. on population nowcast and death statistics. A partial update of the legal basis in the area of population statistics is unavoidable because the current Regulation (EU) 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics will cease to apply in 2028. This update is therefore needed but it also creates an opportunity for a wider revision to modernise the legal framework of population statistics. This broad revision would tackle the following problems:

1) The current legal framework cannot satisfy new and emerging user needs. Consultations with key users have shown the need for more information on migrants and migration-related topics, for more frequent and timelier data, and for small area/grid level data. Voluntary data collections would also need to deliver better country coverage and data quality.

2) The current legal framework generates insufficiently coherent statistics. As currently population statistics are based on several legal acts that were not designed jointly, there is insufficient coherence in terms of definitions and breakdowns. A joint revision and update of all the relevant data collections would allow to improve coherence.

3) The current legal framework does not allow to exploit the increased use of data from administrative sources in Member States. Most Member States are increasingly moving towards an extensive use of administrative sources and show a clear and widespread intention to keep expanding this use for population statistics. This makes it feasible to collect more population data on an annual basis and to produce estimates for small areas such as cities, functional urban areas, or even a 1km square grid. However, the current legal framework does not foresee either the exploitation of annual data or the synergies between the population, migration and census data in a context where annual updates are feasible and all data collections of different frequency are under the same framework.

All the above problems can be tackled jointly by revising and updating the legal basis of population statistics on the basis of a sound evaluation and impact analysis.

Basis for EU intervention (legal basis and subsidiarity check)

Article 338 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) provides the legal basis for European statistics. Acting in accordance with the ordinary legislative procedure, the European Parliament and the Council adopt measures for the production of statistics where this is necessary for the Union to carry out its role. Article 338 sets out the requirements relating to the production of European statistics, stating that they must conform to standards of impartiality, reliability, objectivity, scientific independence, cost-effectiveness and statistical confidentiality.

The subsidiarity principle applies insofar as the new initiative does not fall within the exclusive competence of the Union. The ESS provides an infrastructure for statistical information. The system is designed to meet the needs of multiple users, for the purpose of decision-making in democratic societies.

Population data are important for various policy areas (in particular, regional policy) of the Union and are of high relevance for three political priorities of the Commission (An economy that works for people, Protecting our European way of life, A new push for European democracy). They are also used as a basis for the qualified majority voting in the Council 4 . A coordinated approach based on an EU legal framework is essential for obtaining comparable data based on harmonised concepts and approaches methodology.

One of the main criteria that the statistical data must meet is to be coherent and comparable. A European framework could help improve coherence and comparability of population statistics across Member States. The Union may therefore adopt measures in this area in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity as set out in Article 5 of the TFEU.

B. Objectives and policy options

The initiative aims to better respond to users’ needs, modernise and enhance the relevance, harmonisation and coherence of population statistics.

The baseline (option 1) is to maintain the current legislation in force without changes. The ESS would continue producing population and census data under existing arrangements – based on separate legislation for demography, migration and census statistics. Updates will nevertheless be necessary because Regulation (EC) No 763/2008 would still need to be implemented separately for the 2031 census. When Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 expires in 2028, demographic statistics will become deregulated,

The alternative policy options will depend on the findings of the evaluation and are expected to include the following:

Option 2: update of existing regulations. Regulation (EC) No 763/2008 would remain in force for the 2031 census round, while work would continue on separate new legislation as necessary to integrate and possibly expand the annual data collections on demography and migration. Some data now collected voluntarily may be included in the new legislation. A new legal act will be needed to replace Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013 that expires in 2028.

Option 3: fully integrated single regulation. A new framework regulation would integrate all data collections on population (migration, census, demography) to increase harmonisation and efficiency. More frequent and more geographically detailed data could be included. To respond to users’ needs, the new legal basis could cover geo-referenced data and data on small areas as well as increased information on migrants and migration-related topics. It could also allow for flexible and incremental expansion in the data collections over time, to exploit the increased availability of administrative data. Some data now collected voluntarily may be included in the new framework regulation to ensure greater harmonisation.

C. Preliminary assessment of expected impacts [max 20 lines]

The expected impacts of each option will be analysed in an impact assessment based on available evidence (such as statistics, data quality analysis, surveys, cost analysis) and the findings of targeted studies carried out by an external contractor, workshops and interviews with data users and expert group discussions.

The intended modernisation of European population statistics will have direct impacts in terms of availability of statistics to inform citizens and data users. As the evidence base for decision making will improve, there will be more widely ranging indirect impacts due to the nature of statistics and wide use of population data. In general, the Commission needs reliable, detailed and comparable data on the size and the demographic, social, employment, housing, educational and migratory characteristics of the population in order to enable the Union to fulfil the tasks assigned to it 5 . Population and housing statistics are required for the study and definition of regional, social and environmental policies at European, national and regional levels. The sections below indicate a few of the many EU policy areas that would benefit from better statistics.

Likely economic impacts

There will be indirect economic impacts. Statistics on population are an important denominator for a wide range of economic policy indicators, namely the per capita indicators using population data. The long-term sustainability and quality of public finances needs population projections produced by the Commission (Eurostat). Monitoring economic, social and territorial cohesion requires detailed population and demography data. Data on the age structure of the population are important for labour market policies and for actions addressing the aging population, healthcare and disability. Data on the basic characteristics of the population with sufficient geographical resolution provide a picture of regional and local disparities relating to education, employment and labour participation. Additional geographical detail and population characteristics will be therefore considered during the impact assessment. Better migration statistics help to monitor the free movement of persons and the functioning of the Internal market. Accurate, timely and harmonised statistics are required on migration events, and on the size, destinations and origins of migration flows and on the demographic, educational and economic characteristics of migrant populations. Public authorities use population data for various administrative needs, including their budgets.

Likely social impacts

There will be indirect social impacts. Population data are essential for a large number of social policies under the Commission priority on An economy that works for people. These statistics are needed to support various Union actions, such as the promotion of social inclusion and the monitoring of social cohesion at national and regional level. The European Pillar of Social Rights guides us towards a strong social Europe that is fair and inclusive. Demographic changes such as ageing, increasing life expectancy, declining fertility and depopulation of some areas have social impacts as well as economic ones. Demographic statistics delivers the sustainable development indicator on life expectancy at birth by sex. Demographic changes such as ageing have social impacts as well as economic ones. Data on population were crucial for the Commission’s report on the impact of demographic change and the green paper on ageing; population data are equally crucial for the Long Term Vision for Rural Areas initiative, to monitor the changes in the age structure of the agricultural population, population density and rural access to services. The social impacts of the modernisation of population statistics will be indirect, through the data that is used for social policies.

Likely environmental impacts

There will be indirect environmental impacts. The European Green Deal envisages a new growth strategy that will transform the Union into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy where no person and no place is left behind. Good quality population data with sufficient regional detail, and in particular grid data, are essential for understanding relevant issues such as the spatial dimension of exposure to water, air and soil pollution or access to smart mobility. A modernisation of population statistics will have indirect impacts by improving the data needed for such policies.

Likely impacts on fundamental rights

There will be indirect fundamental rights impacts. The modernisation of population statistics is likely to have indirect impacts on fundamental rights by improving the quality and availability of the relevant data. Reliable, timely and harmonised data is necessary under the Commission priorities on A new push for European democracy and Promoting our European way of life. The monitoring of EU citizenship and the rights of citizens relies on population data. Information on migrants helps better understand the integration of third country nationals; intra-EU migration figures show how EU citizens take advantage of the right to free movement. Data on acquisition of citizenship help monitor the implementation and application by EU countries of citizenship rights. Grid population data show access to facilities for enjoying fundamental rights such as education and healthcare.

Likely impacts on simplification and/or administrative burden

Depending on the chosen option, the initiative has the potential to reduce the administrative burden on Member State administrations, mostly the national statistical institutes, to compile population data and transmit them to the Commission (Eurostat), and on the households and individuals to contribute to population and housing censuses and demographic surveys.

Any change in the data requirements (e.g. variables and their definitions, breakdowns, periodicity, deadlines) will require that the national statistical institutes and other national authorities involved in the production of population statistics adapt their national compilation systems to comply with the EU harmonised framework. While new data may be required to respond to users’ needs, the burden of these requirements may be mitigated by the possibility of using more administrative data as they become more available in Member States. In addition, if the option to integrate all the relevant data collections under a single legal basis is chosen, this will entail better harmonisation, more coherent statistics and cost-efficiency.

The more extensive use of administrative data will reduce the survey burden on citizens, but may increase temporarily the burden on some of the public administrations (administrative data owners) and the national statistical institutes to adapt their processes and procedures. It is expected that these changes will pose additional burden only in the year(s) when the changes are implemented and that burdens will decrease in the longer run. The replacement of the traditional census with statistics from administrative sources reduces costs and budgets of national administrations.

Replacing the existing relevant legislation with a single framework regulation will lead to simplification of the EU legislation.

D. Evidence base, data collection and better regulation instruments

Impact assessment

A back-to-back evaluation and impact assessment will be undertaken to support this initiative. The impact assessment report will accompany the Commission legislative proposal for revised EU legislation.

Evidence base and data collection

After the 2017 Budapest Memorandum, technical discussions started within relevant expert groups on the objectives, scope and features of a possible modernisation of European statistics on population. Eurostat collected information on the current costs to the NSIs of these data and organised a series of consultations with key Commission users of population statistics. The Commission (Eurostat), supported by a contractor, will carry out further data collection and stakeholder consultations to complement the preliminary investigations. Further discussions with data users and expert groups will also take place, as well as a public consultation. While economic, environmental and social impacts are indirect, pertain to the policy areas where the statistics are used and will be difficult to measure, the impact on administrative burden may be essential depending on the option and will be assessed quantitatively.

Consultation strategy

Consultations will be carried out to ensure that the widest range of stakeholders can provide their views and opinions. They will include both backward looking elements (explore what works well and what works less well in the current legal basis) and forward-looking elements (the impacts of the options on all relevant stakeholders). The main stakeholders identified are the data users, namely Commission Departments, the Council, other public bodies, academia/researchers, the general public and the media as well as the data producers, specifically the national statistical institutes and other national authorities.

Internet-based public consultations of minimum 12 weeks will be part of the consultation strategy. The public consultation in accordance with the Better regulation guidelines will be accessible via the European Commission's Have Your Say web portal and via Eurostat’s website. The questionnaire will be available in 23 EU languages; replies can be made any EU language. In addition to the factual summary report of the consultation, a synopsis report will also be drafted summarising the results of all consultation activities

Will an Implementation plan be established?

The initiative will consist of a regulation that will be directly applicable in Member States and an implementation plan is usually not needed.