EVALUATION ROADMAP

title of the evaluation/fc

Ex-post evaluation of macro-financial assistance to Tunisia

lead dg – responsible unit

ECFIN

date of this roadmap

05/2018

type of evaluation

Evaluation,

Ex-post

Mixed

planned start date

planned completion date

Q3/2018

Q2/2019

Planning calendar

http://ec.europa.eu/smart-regulation/evaluation/index_en.htm

This indicative roadmap is provided for information purposes only and is subject to change.

A. Purpose

(A.1) Purpose

The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the first Macro Financial Assistance (MFA) operation in Tunisia that was initiated in 2014 and disbursed in 2015-2017 in order to draw lessons for future decision-making and identify areas of improvement for similar on-going or future possible interventions. It will also ensure transparency and accountability by comprehensively assessing the intervention and publishing the final evaluation.

The evaluation consists of an ex post assessment of the objectives, content and results of the MFA operations. The evaluation is included in the 2016-2020 ECFIN multi-annual evaluation plan:

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/economy_finance/evaluation/pdf/maep_en.pdf 

The evaluation will be supported by a study that will be undertaken by an independent external evaluator.

(A.2) Justification

The evaluation will assess the first MFA operation to Tunisia detailed in European Parliament and Council Decision No 534/2014/EU.

Article 8(2) of the Decision stipulates:

"No later than two years after the expiry of the availability period referred to in Article 1(4), the Commission shall submit to the European Parliament and to the Council an ex-post evaluation report".  

B. Content and subject of the evaluation

(B.1) Subject area

MFA is a policy-based financial instrument of untied and undesignated balance-of-payments support to partner third countries. It takes the form of medium/long-term loans or grants, or a combination of these, and generally complements financing provided in the context of an International Monetary Fund's reform programme.

The decision to provide EUR 300 million of MFA to Tunisia was adopted by the European Parliament and the Council on 15 May 2014 1 . The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by exchange of letters between June and September 2014. The operation was fully disbursed in 2015 and 2017, in three tranches of EUR 100 million each, respectively on 7 May 2015, on 1 December 2015, and on 20 July 2017.

(B.2) Original objectives of the intervention

Tunisia's democratic transition process following the 2011 revolution was affected by concurrent regional instability (particularly in Libya) and a weak global economic environment, all of which disrupted economic activity. These multiple challenges meant that the Tunisian government needed to promote economic recovery and social assistance in the country while building new democratic institutions, with resulting external and budgetary financial gaps. Following the Tunisian authorities' request in August 2013, the Commission proposed to the European Parliament and the Council, on 5 December 2013, to provide Tunisia with MFA, which is a form of exceptional financial aid extended by the EU to partner countries experiencing a balance of payments crisis.

The aim of this MFA operation, in the form of loan, was to help Tunisia cover its external financing needs, as well as to encourage reforms aimed at improving the sustainability of public finances as well as enhancing the country's social protection system while improving the investment climate, thereby supporting the ultimate objective of creating the conditions for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

(B.3) How the objectives were to be achieved

C. Scope of the evaluation/FC

(C.1) Topics covered

The objective of the ex-post evaluation of MFA Tunisia is twofold: (i) to analyse the impact of MFA on the economy of the beneficiary country and in particular on the sustainability of its external position; (ii) to assess the added value of the EU intervention. In general terms, the evaluation should aim to draw lessons with respect to the EU’s financial assistance:

- whether the ex-ante considerations determining the design and terms of the operation were appropriate, taking due account of the economic, political and institutional context;

- and whether the outcome of the programme met the objectives. 

(C.2) Issues to be examined

The ex-post evaluation of MFA to Tunisia will assess the results and efficiency of the completed Union's macro-financial assistance and the extent to which it has contributed to the aims of this assistance.

The ex-post evaluation of MFA to Tunisia is expected to assess:

–    To what extent was the MFA operation design (including adequateness of financing envelope, focus of conditionality) appropriate in relation to the objectives to be achieved? This question mainly aims at assessing the relevance of the intervention;

–    To what extent have the objectives of the MFA operation been achieved? This question aims at assessing the effectiveness of the intervention and considers the global picture (macroeconomic developments, fiscal policy, structural reforms, other sector reforms, etc.) to determine what have been the quantitative and qualitative effects. It will also assess to what extent the operation contributed to achieving its specific objectives outlined in the Decision and the Memorandum of Understanding;

–    In what way has the design of the MFA assistance conditioned the performance of the operation in respect to its cost and its objectives? Was the disbursement of the financial assistance appropriate in the context of the prevailing economic and financial conditions in the beneficiary country? To what extent did the MFA operation design allow to carry out the intervention efficiently?

–    What is the additional value resulting from an EU intervention compared to what could reasonably have been expected from Member States acting at a national level? To what extent did the MFA operation add value compared to other interventions by other international development partners, and notably the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? This question aims to assess the EU added-value of the intervention;

(C.3) Other tasks

NA

D. Evidence base

(D.1) Evidence from monitoring

This assistance is of a macroeconomic nature and its design is consistent with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported economic programme. The monitoring of the action by the Commission services takes place on the basis of progress in the implementation of the IMF arrangement and specific reform measures agreed with the Tunisian authorities in the MoU. Before each disbursement, Commission services assessed the progress made with the policy measures under the MFA programme and reported to the Council and the European Parliament on an annual basis the findings and conclusions.

(D.2) Previous evaluations and other reports

Previous ex-post evaluations of MFA operations can be found at: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/economy_finance/evaluation/completed/index_en.htm

The European Court of Auditors' March 2017 Special Report on EU assistance to Tunisia is available here:

https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/Pages/DocItem.aspx?did=41012 

(D.3) Evidence from assessing the implementation and application of legislation (complaints, infringement procedures)

NA

(D.4) Consultation

A targeted stakeholder consultation will be undertaken in the course of 2018 to provide relevant context and economics-based inputs to the analysis. It will focus on the key economic questions that will arise during the evaluation process. For this purpose, the stakeholder consultation element of the evaluation will be targeted towards bodies with an informed economic understanding of the Tunisian MFA operation and the context in which it was implemented. To collect a broad, multi-dimensional and triangulated picture of the economic and financial issues surrounding the programme, a wide range of the main Tunisian organisations representing civil society and different points of view will be involved, such as industry/business/employers, workers, banking sector, consumers, and charitable organisations. The targeted stakeholder consultation will also include all relevant officials from the European Commission, the European External Action Service and EU Member States (through the Economic and Financial Committee) and International Financial Institutions (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, etc.) and also from the Tunisian authorities who were involved in designing or implementing the programme.

This targeted stakeholder consultation will take place early in the evaluation process. It is envisaged that stakeholders will be consulted via a range of methods including interviews, focus groups and questionnaires. These will contain specific questions on economic policy. This will enable data to be captured that is structured and quantifiable. Stakeholders will be approached in advance to explain the nature of the evaluation and increase the response rate.

Once the report is nearing completion (i.e. early 2019), a workshop with stakeholders will be organised to provide an opportunity to stress-test and validate the analysis and provisional findings of the evaluation.

Given that the evaluation is of an activity conducted outside the EU, an open public consultation will not take place. A consultation strategy that identifies a comprehensive range of methods to reach relevant stakeholders will be further developed and a summary and analysis of all consultation activities and the inputs received will be published as part of the Commission's Staff Working Document.

(D.5) Further evidence to be gathered

Inputs into the analytical work will also include publically available data, European Commission, IMF and World Bank reports, documents published by the Tunisian authorities and other international organisations as well as private sector and academic research.

E. Other relevant information/ remarks

NA