Annex 4: Who is affected by the initiative and how?

Practical implications of the initiative. Who is affected?

The costs and benefits of the preferred set of options will be assessed compared to the baseline options and along three axes: addressing the risk of carbon leakage, avoiding competition distortion and having a positive environmental impact. The initiative will mainly impact European citizens, European undertakings, Member States (and EFTA states) and third countries.

European citizens – especially European workers - will benefit from the compensation to the sectors that are the most at risk of carbon leakage, as these companies will have less incentive to relocate in third countries, and will therefore have the incentives to preserve employment in Europe. If carbon leakage would materialize, there would be a risk of lower economic activity and lower employment. The compensation schemes will have a direct impact on workers from eligible sectors, but also on workers from undertakings integrated in the value chain of these sectors (indirect employment). In addition, as the initiative will avoid a global increase of CO2 emissions and will maintain the ETS incentives to decarbonise at the same time, European citizens will benefit from lower GHG pollution.

European undertakings (including SMEs) will benefit from the update of the list of eligible sectors to compensation, as the risk of carbon leakage will be addressed for the sectors the most at risk of carbon leakage.

The revised ETS Guidelines will imply significant economic and social impacts for both eligible sectors for compensation and of other sectors, which may compete with eligible sectors in certain product markets. In any eligible sector, European companies that do not receive compensation compete with companies that benefit from it. The fact that not all Member States grant indirect ETS costs compensation may impact the level playing field within a sector and thus risks distorting intra-sector competition. Moreover, inter-sector competition between companies active in sectors producing substitutable products might be distorted by the measure. By keeping the aid targeted and limited to the minimum necessary, those risks are minimised.

The initiative is also expected to positively stimulate energy efficiency investments, as it provides only partial compensation at the level of the most efficient undertaking in the eligible sector. The additional requirement on conditionality will not have any additional impact on SMEs, since the Guidelines do not introduce any additional requirements as compared to the Energy Efficiency Directive. Compliance costs should not be considered as additional costs, since the undertakings were already subject to these obligations under the Energy Efficiency Directive. Only additional compliance costs generated by the conditionality of the compensation should be taken into account when estimating the costs of the Guidelines.

Member States (and EFTA states) will have to take into consideration the updated rules in the revised ETS State aid Guidelines, in order to update their compensation schemes. Public authorities will have to comply with the information obligations stemming from policy options on sector eligibility, aid amount and conditionality. The revised ETS Guidelines will require the Member States and (and EFTA States) which introduced schemes to update the parameters of the compensation calculation. However, the initiative is not expected to create significant additional administrative burdens on authorities since the process remains the same as under previous Guidelines. Additional administrative costs may still arise, compared to the baseline option, since the revised ETS Guidelines introduce conditions that have to be fulfilled in order to receive the compensation. Member States (and EFTA States) will need to verify that the conditions are met. The other administrative costs are not expected to vary significantly, as the revised ES guidelines do not introduce any significant change in the application, reporting and monitoring processes. As regards the administrative burden linked to the obligation to notify to the Commission the new or updated schemes, this is an intrinsic feature of State aid control present in all options.

The revised ETS Guidelines will affect Member States budget allocated for compensation. However, it should be made clear that Member States (and EFTA States) have the choice whether to implement a compensation scheme, the revised ETS Guidelines do not introduce any mandatory costs. For the States deciding to implement a scheme, the overall budget spent on compensation will be different than under the baseline option, since several parameters (eligible sectors, aid intensity and CO2 factors) have been amended compared to the baseline.

The revised ETS Guidelines will benefit Member states (and EFTA States) because they introduce clarity and uniformity about the way national compensation schemes should be designed.

European authorities will support additional costs link to the establishment of revised efficiency benchmarks, for the purpose of the revised ETS Guidelines. These benchmarks will be computed by an external consultant and will be updated at Midterm. These costs are therefore to be spread over 5 years.

Third countries will be indirectly impacted, to the extent that the risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs is addressed with the preferred options. Consequently, there will be less chance that European companies with a significant risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs will relocate in third countries. The initiative has also a positive impact on the environment in third countries, which would be relevant for overreaching the EU objectives under the Paris Agreement.

Summary of costs and benefits

For the preferred set of options, the tables below presents the benefits (table I) and costs (table II) that have been identified and assessed during the impact assessment process.

I.Overview of Benefits – Preferred set of options with respect to baseline

Description

Quantification

Comments

Direct benefits

Address the risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs, resulting in preservation of employment and economic activity combined with the less possible distortion to competition

Estimation of the maximum annual budget to cover the sectors at highest risk in all Member States = 2.54 1 bio EUR (compared to 3.07 bio EUR under the baseline scenario, which includes sectors at low or low- medium risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs)

Estimation of annual budget to be spent based on current schemes = 1.523 2 bio EUR (compared to 1.473 bio EUR under baseline)

Direct employment = 833.000 persons only in sectors at medium-high or medium risk (compared to 1.063 Mio persons under baseline option, including 311.000 employees from sectors at low or low-medium risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs)

GVA impacted = 72 Bio EUR only in sectors at medium-high or medium risk (compared to 115 bio EUR under baseline scenario, including 2.6 Bio EUR from sectors at low-medium risk and 37 bio EUR from sectors at low risk of carbon leakage due to indirect ETS costs)

Aid will be limited to the minimum necessary in order to reach the objectives. Only the sectors and subsectors, which are the most at risk of carbon leakage, will receive compensation for addressing this risk, under the preferred option A4.

Indirect benefits

Wider macroeconomic benefits (preservation of economic activity and impact on indirect employment)

If the risk of carbon leakage would materialize, it would also have an indirect impact on employment and economic activity for undertakings in the supply chain.

Stimulate energy efficiency innovation and research, and preserve incentives to electrification

By incorporating energy efficiency benchmark in the compensation formula, the most efficient production process will be taken into account. By compensating only partially the indirect costs (75%), the initiative creates incentives to reduce electricity consumption. Also, the initiative covers subsectors with production processes characterised by fuel and electricity substitutability. Finally, the conditionality requirements for large undertakings will contribute to the reduction of indirect ETS costs for those undertakings.



II.Overview of costs – Preferred set of options with respect to baseline

Type of costs

Citizens

Business

Member States (and EFTA States)

European authorities

Direct costs

Budget for compensation

Estimation of the maximum annual budget = 2.54 bio EUR (compared to 3.07 bio EUR under the baseline scenario) - Estimation of annual budget to be spent based on current schemes = 1.523 bio EUR (compared to 1.454 bio EUR under baseline) -

limited to the minimum necessary to reach the objectives

Administrative costs

Similar as under baseline scenario

Similar as under baseline scenario and additional administrative checks of beneficiaries’ compliance with conditionality requirements

Compliance costs (i.e. costs to comply with substantive obligations or requirements contained in the ETS Guidelines)

No additional costs for SMEs. Large undertakings will have to bear separate investment costs to fulfil the conditionality requirements, which will either be profitable investments or receive separate investment aid.

Costs related to the establishment of the benchmarks

The benchmark update is estimated roughly 300.000 EUR, to be spread over 5 years (since midterm revision after 5 years and new benchmarks for the following 5 years)

Enforcement costs

Information & monitoring

Similar as under baseline scenario

Similar as under baseline scenario

Inspections and sanctions

Similar as under baseline scenario

Complaint handling

Similar as under baseline scenario

Similar as under baseline scenario

(1)

     The compensation amount under the preferred options has been estimated by multiplying the indirect emissions for each sector by a price of 25 EUR/ton and by 75%, which is the preferred aid intensity. The compensation amount has then been increased for sectors which face a high share (>1.5%) of indirect carbon costs over their GVA after compensation, to bring this share down to 1.50% - as defined under the preferred option B3. Under the assumption that all Member States would compensate the sectors to the maximum foreseen by the Guidelines, the maximum annual budget under the preferred set of options would amount to 2.73 bio EUR – compared to 3.07 bio EUR under option A0. This amount covers all eligible sectors, but not the additional subsectors due to lack of data on indirect emission costs at Prodcom level.

(2)

     This estimation is based on the preferred options and is computed on the same assumptions as above, and by allocating the indirect costs to countries following the proportion of GVA at factor among Member States and EFTA states.