The options considered cover a range of CO2 reduction target trajectories up to 2030.
Across the different options considered for the target levels, the CO2 emission reductions for HDVs in 2030, with respect to the baseline, range from 3% to 8%. By 2030, NOx emissions decrease by 1.3% to 4.7% and PM2.5 emissions by up to 0.6 %.
Significant net benefits are expected for society as a whole as well as for transport operators and consumers. They increase as CO2 target levels get stricter. Net economic benefits from a societal perspective, including avoided CO2 costs, range from 9,377 - 52,369 EUR per lorry registered in 2025 and from 41,567 –87,278 EUR per lorry registered in 2030.
From the first and second use perspective, cumulative net savings, i.e. the difference between fuel savings and manufacturing costs, range from EUR 5,413 - EUR 37,589 per lorry in 2025 and from EUR 22,032 to EUR 82,429 per lorry in 2030. This is equivalent to saving 1-4 % of its operating costs in 2025 and 3-12 % in 2030.
An analysis of the cost-effective technologies already at hand or becoming readily available in the short term shows that their full deployment would allow achieving emission reductions between 15% to 20% in 2025 compared to the baseline.
Higher uncertainties over the performance and costs of more advanced technologies and, in particular, alternative powertrains relying on the existence of an alternative fuels infrastructure could affect the feasibility of higher target level options in 2030.
Total costs of HDV freight transport per activity are slightly reduced, by less than 1% in 2025 and in the order of 1 to 3% in 2030.