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Document 52016SC0349

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION TO THE REPORT "IMPLEMENTING THE PARIS AGREEMENT - PROGRESS OF THE EU TOWARDS THE AT LEAST -40% TARGET" Accompanying the document Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council Implementing the Paris Agreement - Progress of the EU towards the at least -40% target (required under Article 21 of Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change and repealing Decision No 280/2004/EC)

SWD/2016/0349 final

Brussels, 8.11.2016

SWD(2016) 349 final

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

TECHNICAL INFORMATION TO THE REPORT "IMPLEMENTING THE PARIS AGREEMENT - PROGRESS OF THE EU TOWARDS THE AT LEAST -40% TARGET"

Accompanying the document

Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council

Implementing the Paris Agreement - Progress of the EU towards the at least -40% target
(required under Article 21 of Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change and repealing Decision No 280/2004/EC)

{COM(2016) 707 final}


Contents

1.Technical references to main data & figures

2.Overview of climate targets6

3.EU wide trends (inventory) and projections (WEM) per sector9

4.Member States progresses towards Effort Sharing Decision targets17

5.Key figures for Kyoto CP1 compliance24

6.Member States Climate Finance28

7.Adaptation to climate change30


Index of Tables

Table 1: Overview of Climate targets    

Table 2: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq) covered by the Kyoto Protocol    16

Table 3: Emissions (MtCO2eq) covered by the Climate and Energy Package    16

Table 4 : RELATIVE gap between historic emissions and ESD targets for 2013 and 2014 (in % of 2005 base year emissions)    17

Table 5 : Estimated (2015) and projected (2020) RELATIVE gap between emissions and ESD targets (in % of 2005 base year emissions)    19

Table 6: Historic (2013-2014), estimated (2015) and projected (2016-2020) ABSOLUTE gaps between emissions and annual limits under the Effort Sharing Decision (in Mt CO2 eq)    21

Table 7: Initial Assigned Amount units, GHG emissions 2008-2012 (tCO2eq), and Kyoto Protocol units in the retirement account    24

Table 8: Total quantity of Kyoto Protocol units requested to be carried over from first to the second commitment period    26

Table 9 : Climate finance provided to developing countries (2014).    28

 


Index of Figures

Figure 1: Share of emissions by IPCC sector category in the EU-28; 2014    

Figure 2: Past change in EU-28 GHG emissions by IPCC sector categories.    10

Figure 3: EU- 28 GHG emissions per sector: inventory and WEM projections scenario    12

Figure 4:GHG emissions intensity in the EU; 1990, 2005 and 2015. Percentages reflect annual average reduction between 2015-1990.    14

Figure 5: GHG emissions per capita in the EU; 1990, 2005, and 2015. Percentages reflect annual average reduction between 2015-1990.    15

1.Technical references to main data & figures

Source of data:

Emissions up to 2014 are based on data from the official 2016 inventory submissions by the Member States. They have been compiled according to the 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the new global warming potentials from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Emissions estimates for the year 2015 are based on approximated inventory data provided in 2016 by the Member States or estimated by the EEA on behalf of the Commission, where needed.

Projected emissions are based on Member States' submissions of 2015, and on the updated projections submitted by Member States in 2016 under the MMR. Projections have been quality-checked, gap-filled and adjusted where necessary by the EEA on behalf of the Commission. For the gap filling and ETS/non-ETS split estimation, data from the EU Reference Scenario based on the PRIMES and GAINS models have been used. 1

Notes related to Figures presented in the Climate Action Progress Report:

Figure 1: the scope of the emissions presented is as under the Climate and Energy Package (including international aviation). The quantification of the EU 2030 target is indicative.

Figure 2: The 2015 gap is the difference between 2015 estimates in the non-ETS sector and the 2015 targets as a percentage of ESD base-year emissions (i.e. 2005 emissions backwards calculated from the 2020 Annual Emission Allocations). The 2020 gap is the difference between projected non-ETS emissions and targets in 2020 as a percentage of base year emissions.

2.Overview of climate targets

Table 1: Overview of Climate targets

 

International commitments

EU domestic legislation

 

Kyoto Protocol

Paris Agreement

2020 Climate and Energy Package

2030 Climate and Energy Framework

EU ETS

ESD

EU ETS (as proposal COM(2015) 337 final)

ESR (as proposal COM(2016) 482)

Target year of period

Second commitment period (2013-2020)

(target for EU-28)

Already in force – covers the period post 2020

2013-2020

2013-2020

2021-2030

2021-2030

Emission reduction target

-20%

at least -40% in 2030

-21% compared to 2005 for ETS emissions

Annual targets by MS. In 2020 -10% compared to 2005 for non-ETS emissions

-43% compared to 2005 for ETS emissions

Annual targets by MS. In 2030 -30% compared to 2005 for non-ETS emissions

Overall target: -20% GHG emissions reduction vs 1990"

Overall target: "at least -40% domestic GHG emissions reduction vs 1990"

Further targets

-

• limiting global warming to well below 2°C.;
• every 5 years to set more ambitious targets as required by science;

• report on implementation/ track progress towards the long-term goal through a robust transparency and accountability system.

• balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century

Renewable Energy Directive: 20% share of renewable energy of gross final energy consumption;

At least 27% share of renewable energy in EU energy consumption;

Energy Efficiency Directive : Increase energy efficiency by 20 %

At least 27% improvement in energy efficiency (to be reviewed by 2020, having in mind an EU level of 30%)

Base year

1990, but subject to flexibility rules. 1995 or 2000 may be used as its base year for NF3

1990

1990 for overall emission reduction target; 2005 for targets broken down into ETS and non-ETS emissions, 2007 projections of 2020 energy consumption for energy efficiency

1990 for overall emission reduction target; 2005 for targets broken down into ETS and non-ETS emissions

LULUCF

Included ARD and forest management, other activities if elected

(new accounting rules)

Included

Excluded

Included:
July 2016, the Comission launched a proposal for a regulation on the inclusion of GHG emissions and removals from LULUCF into the 2030 climate and enegy framework (COM/2016/0479 final) and the rules of its inclusion as of 2021.

Aviation***

Domestic aviation included. International aviation not attributed.

Economy-wide action encouraged

Domestic and some international aviation included in EU ETS

Aviation generally excluded

Domestic and some international aviation included in EU ETS

Aviation generally excluded

Use of international credits

Use of KP flexible mechanisms subject to KP rules

Possible

Upper limit for credit use for period 2008-2020 at a maximum of 50 % of the reduction effort below 2005 levels

2 Annual use of carbon credits is limited to up to 3 % of each Member State's ESD emissions in 2005

No

No

Carry-over of units (*)from preceeding periods

Subject to KP rules including those agreed in the Doha Amendment

No

EU ETS allowances can be banked into subsequent ETS trading periods since the second trading period

No carry over from previous period

Indefinite validity of allowances not limited to trading periods, no need to carry over.

No

Gases covered

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6,

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3

Sectors included

Energy, IPPU, agriculture, waste, LULUCF

Energy, IPPU, agriculture, waste, LULUCF

Energy, IPPU, agriculture, waste, LULUCF

Power & heat generation, energy-intensive industry sectors, aviation

Transport (except aviation), buildings, non-ETS industry, agriculture (except forestry) and waste

Power & heat generation, energy-intensive industry sectors, aviation

Transport (except aviation), buildings, non-ETS industry, agriculture (except forestry) and waste

GWPs used

IPCC SAR

IPCC AR4

IPCC AR4

IPCC AR4

IPCC AR4

Applicable to number of MS

15 (additional KP targets for single MS)

28 and Iceland

28 Member States + possibly Iceland and Norway

28 (**)

28

Source: European Commission

Note:    (*) For the CP2 it refers to carry over from CP1. For the ETS it refers to carry-over from previous trading period under the scheme itself

   (**) Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are also covered under the EU-ETS

   (***) To be reviewed after the ICAO Assembly

.

3.EU wide trends (inventory) and projections (MS WEM) per sector

3.1.Emission trends in the main sectors

3.1.1.Change in sectorial emissions

In 2014, energy-related activities, such as energy production and final use including transport were responsible for 78 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU. Agriculture was responsible for 10 % of total emissions, followed by the sector Industrial Processes with 9 % and Waste with 3 %.

Figure 1: Share of emissions by IPCC sector category in the EU-28; 2014

Source: EEA, EU greenhouse gas inventory, 2016 inventory data

GHG emissions decreased in the majority of sectors between 1990 and 2014, with the notable exception of transport (see figure 2), including international transport and refrigeration and air conditioning.

Figure 2: Past change in EU-28 GHG emissions by IPCC sector categories.

Source: EEA, 2016 EU greenhouse gas inventory

Total emissions from energy supply fell by 6.5% in 2014 compared to 2013 levels, a total decrease by 28% in the period 1990-2014. Energy supply concerns the production of energy, such as electricity or fuels like gasoline, coal, etc. In terms of emissions, energy supply comprises mainly the emissions from public electricity and heat production (thermal power plants), which together with the other supply-side sources, namely petroleum refining and manufacture of solid fuels (coal), are responsible for the bulk of all energy-related emissions. The emissions from electricity and heat production decreased strongly since 1990 thanks to improvement in the transformation efficiency, in the context of lower heat production and higher electricity production between 1990 and 2014. In addition to improved energy efficiency there has been a move towards less carbon intensive fuels and higher generation of electricity from renewable sources. Renewable energy production in the EU reached 25.4 % share of total primary energy production in 2014.

Emissions from energy use (manufacturing industries and construction, residential and service sectors) fell by 36% between 1990 and 2014. Manufacturing industries and construction was the sector responsible for largest emission reductions in the EU, in particular due to substantial improvements in carbon intensity, with emissions from solid fuels more than halving over the period, improved energy efficiency in restructured iron and steel plants and structural changes in the economy, with higher share of services and lower share of energy intensive industries in the GDP. Emissions in the residential sector also substantially decreased since 1990, notably due to energy efficiency improvements from better insulation standards in buildings and less carbon intensive fuel mix. 2014 was the hottest year on record in Europe, and the milder temperatures of autumn/winter months have partly contributed to the lower heat demand by households and therefore lower GHG emissions.

Transport, responsible for around 21% of the total EU emissions in 2014 (about 23% of the total emissions if international aviation is included) is the only sector where emissions have increased over the period 1990-2014, by approximately 13 %. Transport emissions have been on a decreasing trend since 2007 but again increased in 2014. The biggest emission source within transport was by far road transport (around 95% share of the emissions in transport sector in 2014). The overall net increase in emissions was accounted for by a strong uptake of diesel and decline of gasoline use. Energy efficiency improvements and to a lesser extent increased use of less carbon intensive fuels such as LPG and biodiesel blends have led to levels of road transport emissions that would have otherwise been higher.

Emissions from Agriculture in the EU have also shown a steady decline since 1990 levels, with an overall decrease of 21% in 2014. The largest reductions in emissions in the sector occurred due to decreasing use of fertiliser and manure and to declining cattle numbers.

Industrial Processes, covering non-energy (i.e. non-combustion) emissions that stem from chemical processes where greenhouse gases are released were responsible for 9 % of the EU total emissions in 2014. While overall emissions from the sector were cut by 30% since 1990, due to industrial emissions policy and gains in energy efficiency in industrial processes, emissions from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) almost quadrupled since 1990 levels, due to their use as substitutes to the ozone-depleting substances banned under the Montreal Protocol. HFCs are mostly used in refrigeration and air conditioning and the increase in emissions is consistent with both warmer climatic conditions in Europe and higher standards of comfort demanded.

The Waste sector is responsible for 3% of total EU emissions and is also one of the sectors with largest emission cuts of 40% from 1990 levels. Emissions from managed waste disposal on land account for almost two thirds of total waste emissions, and showed the greatest decrease of all waste-related emissions, due to reduction of the amount of biodegradable waste going to landfills and to increase of CH4 recovered and utilised (combustion of biogas for electricity and/or heat generation) or flared.

3.2.Projections

This section presents Member State projections of GHG emissions under the “with existing measures scenario” (WEM), differentiated by sector and aggregated to EU-28 level. Projections are presented for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035, and are displayed in CO2 equivalents. It should be noted that the projections of emissions related to fuel sold to ships and aircrafts engaged in international transport are not included in the totals reported in this section.

The GHG WEM projections of the European Union represents a business-as-usual scenario aggregated from 28 national WEM projections where only policies and measures that have been adopted or already implemented in the Member State are considered, as far as covered by national projections. With regard to EU policy coverage the WEM projection is thus a conservative scenario. The 2016 data set of projections is based on last year's 2015 projections submissions (for Member States that did not submit new projections in 2015, the EU Reference scenario 2013 was used for gap-filling purposes 3 ) and it has been updated with the 2016 submission updates provided by some Member States 4 .

According to the WEM projections, emissions are estimated to be 23% lower in 2020 and 26% lower in 2030, as compared to 1990. When additional measures are taken into account (projections that also encompass planned policies and measures; "WAM"), projections submitted by Member States lead to a reduction of emissions by 25% in 2020 and 29% in 2030, compared to 1990. The aggregated projection for 2020 is broadly consistent with the results of the new EU Reference Scenario 2016 5 published by the European Commission, while for 2030 the latter projects a stronger decline of -35% in 2030 compared to 1990.

3.2.1.Total aggregate GHG emission projections per sector

From a sectoral perspective, the largest share of emission reductions comes from the energy sector (supply and use, excluding transport). 'Energy supply' and 'energy use' are the two sectors which contribute the most to emissions (57%). These emissions are projected to decrease by approximately 34 % for energy use, and 32% in the case of energy supply in 2020, reaching further reductions in 2030 of 38% and 37%, respectively (vs. 1990). In absolute terms, the 'energy supply' sector is expected to contribute quantitatively more to emissions reduction in the next decades.

Transport is the most important sector where emissions are expected to increase between 1990 and 2020. They will be 13 % higher in 2020 than in 1990 and stay at about this level until 2030. The LULUCF emissions present a slightly increasing trend, foreseen to reach 2% in 2020 and 3% in 2030 (vs. 1990).

The rest of the sectors are projected to decrease significantly their GHG emissions in the next decades, the majority of them by 2020. The industry sector is projected to decrease its emissions by approximately 28 % in 2020 and 31% in 2030 (vs. 1990). Agriculture is projected to fall 18% and 16% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Finally, the sector that foresees the biggest decrease (not in absolute terms but relative to its emissions) is the 'waste sector' with a cut of 44% in 2020 and projects to reduce its emissions by half in 2030 (vs. 1990).

Figure 3: EU- 28 GHG emissions per sector: inventory and WEM projections scenario

Source: EEA, European Commission

Notes: *sectors in the legend include indication of respective(s) IPCC sectoral codification.

**The observed discrepancy between 2014 projections and inventory is explained by the fact that there was no major projections update in 2016 submission under Article 14 of MMR. This means that for most MS the reference year used for projections remains 2013 (or a year before), not being possible to update their models with the most recent inventory data (up to the year 2014). The projections data set therefore remains significantly close to the previous one of 2015. Nevertheless, as part of the QA/QC process carried out by the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) supporting the European Environmental Agency (EEA), the reference year used in MS projections has been checked against the GHG emissions for that same year from the latest inventory submission. This is done to ensure that projections are calibrated with the reference year used by MS for preparing their projections.

3.3.Convergence in GHG emissions intensity and emissions per capita

All Member States have experienced an improvement in GHG emissions intensity with the average annual reduction rate ranging from 0.8 % to 5.1 %. This has led to a convergence of performances between Member States ( Figure 4 ).

Figure 4:GHG emissions intensity per GDP in the EU; 1990, 2005 and 2015. Percentages reflect annual average reduction between 2015-1990.

Source: Commission, EEA

Note: approximated 2015 data.
Furthermore, as shown in Figure 5 , emissions per capita have been decreasing and converging since 1990 in all Member States except for Portugal and Spain. Nevertheless for these two countries the emissions per capita are well below EU average.

Figure 5: GHG emissions per capita in the EU; 1990, 2005, and 2015. Percentages reflect annual average reduction between 2015-1990.

Source: Commission, EEA.

Note: approximated 2015 data

3.4.Comparison of the EU-28 GHG total emissions and projections under the Kyoto Protocol and under the Climate and Energy Package

The EU 20 % reduction commitment by 2020 under the Climate and Energy package covers EU CO2 emissions to the extent aviation is covered under the EU ETS. Since 2012 emissions that means all flights from international flights departing from, to and within the EU. The Kyoto Protocol includes GHG emissions from domestic aviation only (inventory category).

The table below presents the quantitative differences between the scopes of the Kyoto Protocol and of the Climate and Energy Package. Reductions achieved by the EU-28, in 2014, when the emissions from international aviation are also taken into account, amount to -23 % compared to 1990 levels. When excluding international aviation, the reduction amounts to -24%.

Table 2: Emissions (Mt CO2 eq) covered by the Kyoto Protocol

 

1990

2005

2014

2020

Total GHG emissions

5,665

5,217

4,282

 

Of which domestic aviation

14

20

15

Projections as compilation of MS data, WEM scenario

4,235

-20% compared to Kyoto base year(1)

4,641

Note: (1) The Kyoto base year emissions is different from 1990 emissions level and it is estimated at 5,798 Mt CO2 eq.; 5,802 Mt CO2 eq. including Iceland

Table 3: Emissions (MtCO2eq) covered by the Climate and Energy Package

 

1990

2005

2014

2020

Total GHG emissions

5,735

5,348

4,419

 

of which domestic aviation

14

20

15

of which international aviation

70

132

137

Projections as compilation of MS data, WEM scenario

4,387

-20 % compared to 1990

4,588

4.Member States progresses towards Effort Sharing Decision targets

A strong monitoring and compliance system has been put in place to monitor Member States' action and help them take corrective measures if they fail to meet their ESD targets. Inventory data submitted by the Member States needs to undergo a detailed Union review, before ESD emissions are officially determined by the European Commission. Last year technical problems with UNFCCC reporting software did not allow Member States to submit their inventories in time for the review to take place. Thus in 2016 emissions had to be reviewed both for 2013 and 2014. The 2016 review was exceptionally comprehensive – the whole inventories of all Member States had to undergo detailed 'second step' checks, ensuring inter alia proper transition of inventory reporting to 2006 IPCC guidelines. The reviewed inventory data is based on updated IPCC inventory guidelines, of which only the change of global warming potentials is reflected in the absolute ESD targets set in 2013.

Table 4 below shows that Malta is the only Member State with historic ESD emissions above its targets. Malta will now have four months to use flexibility provisions under ESD (e.g. trading ESD units with other Member States), in order to comply with ESD and avoid compliance procedures.

Table 4 : RELATIVE gap between historic emissions and ESD targets for 2013 and 2014 (in % of 2005 base year emissions)

 

2013

2014

Country

A)

B)

C*)= B - A

D)

E)

F*)= E – D

2013 ESD target compared to 2005

2013 ESD emissions data compared to 2005

Relative gap 2013 vs. ESD 2013 target

2014 ESD target compared to 2005

2014 ESD emissions data compared to 2005

Relative gap 2014 vs. ESD 2014 target

Austria

-9%

-14%

-4%

-10%

-17%

-7%

Belgium

-2%

-7%

-5%

-3%

-12%

-9%

Bulgaria

12%

-7%

-20%

13%

-5%

-18%

Croatia

4%

-20%

-24%

5%

-22%

-27%

Cyprus

-5%

-37%

-32%

-5%

-37%

-32%

Czech Republic

1%

-1%

-2%

2%

-7%

-9%

Denmark

-3%

-12%

-8%

-6%

-14%

-9%

Estonia

8%

-1%

-9%

8%

4%

-4%

Finland

-6%

-6%

-1%

-7%

-11%

-3%

France

-6%

-12%

-7%

-7%

-15%

-9%

Germany

-5%

-7%

-2%

-6%

-12%

-6%

Greece

-8%

-31%

-23%

-7%

-30%

-23%

Hungary

-5%

-27%

-23%

-3%

-27%

-25%

Ireland

-4%

-13%

-10%

-6%

-14%

-8%

Italy

-9%

-19%

-10%

-10%

-22%

-12%

Latvia

9%

4%

-6%

11%

7%

-4%

Lithuania

-4%

-12%

-9%

-1%

-9%

-8%

Luxembourg

-6%

-8%

-2%

-8%

-13%

-5%

Malta

6%

14%

7%

6%

17%

11%

Netherlands

-4%

-15%

-12%

-5%

-23%

-18%

Poland

9%

5%

-4%

10%

2%

-8%

Portugal

-3%

-24%

-21%

-2%

-23%

-21%

Romania

2%

-2%

-4%

4%

-2%

-7%

Slovakia

2%

-10%

-13%

4%

-16%

-20%

Slovenia

2%

-9%

-12%

3%

-13%

-16%

Spain

-4%

-16%

-11%

-5%

-16%

-11%

Sweden

-7%

-21%

-14%

-8%

-23%

-15%

United Kingdom

-8%

-13%

-5%

-9%

-17%

-8%

* Negative gap indicates over delivery, while positive gap indicate shortfall towards ESD targets.

Note: The 2005 base year ESD emissions are not readily available from emission inventories and registries because the ETS scope and hence also the ESD scope has undergone several changes between 2005 and today. Thus 2005 ESD emissions consistent with the latest ETS scope were re-constructed using the following formula: 2005 ESD emissions = 2020 absolute ESD target / (1 + % 2020 ESD target).



Table 5 below presents the calculations underpinning Figure 2 of the Climate Action Progress Report.

Table 5 : Estimated (2015) and projected (2020) RELATIVE gap between emissions and ESD targets (in % of 2005 base year emissions)

 

2015

2020

Country

A)

B)

C*)= B - A

D)

E)

F*)= E – D

2015 ESD target compared to 2005

2015 ESD proxy emissions data compared to 2005

Relative gap 2015 proxy vs. ESD 2015 target

2020 national target (ESD target) compared to 2005

Projected 2020 non-ETS emissions compared to 2005 (with existing measures)

Gap between projected 2020 non-ETS emissions versus 2020 ESD targets

Austria

-11%

-15%

-4%

-16%

-12%

4%

Belgium

-5%

-8%

-3%

-15%

-10%

5%

Bulgaria

14%

-3%

-17%

20%

-5%

-25%

Croatia

6%

-25%

-31%

11%

-9%

-20%

Cyprus

-5%

-31%

-25%

-5%

-43%

-38%

Czech Republic

3%

-9%

-12%

9%

-8%

-17%

Denmark

-8%

-15%

-7%

-20%

-19%

1%

Estonia

9%

-3%

-11%

11%

-2%

-13%

Finland

-9%

-11%

-2%

-16%

-16%

0%

France

-8%

-13%

-5%

-14%

-17%

-3%

Germany

-7%

-9%

-2%

-14%

-15%

-1%

Greece

-7%

-30%

-24%

-4%

-26%

-22%

Hungary

-1%

-23%

-22%

10%

-28%

-38%

Ireland

-8%

-11%

-2%

-20%

-8%

12%

Italy

-10%

-19%

-9%

-13%

-18%

-5%

Latvia

12%

9%

-3%

17%

7%

-10%

Lithuania

2%

-10%

-11%

15%

-3%

-18%

Luxembourg

-10%

-14%

-3%

-20%

-15%

5%

Malta

6%

25%

19%

5%

-16%

-21%

Netherlands

-7%

-20%

-13%

-16%

-21%

-5%

Poland

10%

2%

-8%

14%

6%

-8%

Portugal

-2%

-24%

-22%

1%

-25%

-26%

Romania

7%

-6%

-12%

19%

4%

-15%

Slovakia

5%

-14%

-19%

13%

-4%

-17%

Slovenia

3%

-12%

-14%

4%

-8%

-12%

Spain

-6%

-16%

-10%

-10%

-12%

-2%

Sweden

-10%

-24%

-14%

-17%

-28%

-11%

United Kingdom

-10%

-16%

-5%

-16%

-19%

-3%

* Negative gap indicates over delivery, while positive gap indicate shortfall towards ESD targets.



Table 6: Historic (2013-2014), estimated (2015) and projected (2016-2020) ABSOLUTE gaps between emissions and annual limits under the Effort Sharing Decision (in Mt CO2 eq)

 

 

ESD reviewed

Proxy emissions

WEM projections

 

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Country

Mt CO2 eq.

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

emissions/
target

absolute gap to target

Austria

emissions

50,1

-2,5

48,2

-3,9

49,2

-2,3

51,5

0,5

51,4

1,0

51,3

1,5

51,3

1,9

51,0

2,2

target

52,6

52,1

51,5

51,0

50,4

49,9

49,3

48,8

Belgium

emissions

74,3

-4,1

70,1

-6,8

73,0

-2,3

72,6

-1,1

72,4

0,2

72,2

1,5

71,9

2,7

71,6

4,0

target

78,4

76,9

75,3

73,8

72,3

70,7

69,2

67,7

Bulgaria

emissions

22,2

-4,7

22,9

-4,3

23,3

-4,2

23,3

-4,4

23,2

-4,8

23,0

-5,3

22,8

-5,7

22,7

-6,1

target

26,9

27,2

27,5

27,7

28,0

28,3

28,5

28,8

Croatia

emissions

15,1

-4,5

14,7

-5,1

14,1

-5,9

16,8

-3,3

16,9

-3,4

17,0

-3,5

17,1

-3,6

17,2

-3,7

target

19,6

19,8

20,0

20,2

20,4

20,6

20,8

21,0

Cyprus

emissions

3,9

-2,0

3,9

-2,0

4,3

-1,6

3,7

-2,2

3,7

-2,2

3,7

-2,3

3,6

-2,3

3,6

-2,4

target

5,9

5,9

5,9

5,9

5,9

5,9

5,9

5,9

Czech Republic

emissions

61,5

-1,0

57,6

-5,6

56,6

-7,3

60,4

-4,3

59,6

-5,8

58,8

-7,4

58,0

-8,9

57,2

-10,5

target

62,5

63,2

64,0

64,7

65,4

66,2

66,9

67,7

Denmark

emissions

33,7

-3,1

32,6

-3,3

32,4

-2,6

32,4

-1,8

31,6

-1,6

31,2

-1,1

31,0

-0,4

30,8

0,3

target

36,8

35,9

35,0

34,1

33,2

32,3

31,4

30,5

Estonia

emissions

5,8

-0,5

6,1

-0,2

5,7

-0,7

5,6

-0,7

5,6

-0,7

5,7

-0,8

5,7

-0,8

5,7

-0,8

target

6,3

6,3

6,3

6,4

6,4

6,4

6,4

6,5

Finland

emissions

31,6

-0,2

30,1

-1,1

30,0

-0,8

29,8

-0,5

29,4

-0,4

29,2

-0,2

28,8

-0,1

28,4

0,0

target

31,8

31,3

30,8

30,3

29,8

29,3

28,8

28,4

France

emissions

366,1

-28,0

353,5

-35,9

365,1

-19,3

356,5

-22,9

353,8

-20,5

351,2

-18,2

348,5

-15,9

345,8

-13,5

target

394,1

389,5

384,4

379,4

374,4

369,3

364,3

359,3

Germany

emissions

460,2

-12,3

436,8

-29,0

448,7

-10,4

440,0

-12,4

435,4

-10,3

430,9

-8,2

426,3

-6,1

421,7

-4,0

target

472,5

465,8

459,1

452,4

445,7

439,0

432,3

425,6

Greece

emissions

44,2

-14,8

44,4

-14,9

44,5

-15,1

47,5

-12,4

47,5

-12,8

47,5

-13,1

47,5

-13,5

47,4

-13,8

target

59,0

59,3

59,6

59,9

60,3

60,6

60,9

61,2

Hungary

emissions

38,4

-12,0

38,4

-13,1

41,0

-11,6

38,6

-15,2

38,5

-16,3

38,5

-17,5

38,4

-18,7

38,4

-19,9

target

50,4

51,5

52,6

53,8

54,9

56,0

57,1

58,2

Ireland

emissions

42,2

-4,7

41,7

-4,1

43,6

-1,0

43,8

0,3

44,0

1,7

44,4

3,2

44,7

4,6

45,0

6,0

target

46,9

45,8

44,6

43,5

42,4

41,2

40,1

39,0

Italy

emissions

273,3

-34,8

265,3

-40,9

272,4

-31,8

272,8

-29,4

273,7

-26,6

274,5

-23,8

275,4

-21,0

276,2

-18,2

target

308,2

306,2

304,2

302,3

300,3

298,3

296,4

294,4

Latvia

emissions

8,8

-0,5

9,0

-0,3

9,2

-0,2

8,7

-0,9

8,8

-0,9

8,9

-0,8

9,0

-0,8

9,1

-0,8

target

9,3

9,4

9,4

9,5

9,6

9,7

9,8

9,9

Lithuania

emissions

11,8

-1,2

12,3

-1,0

12,1

-1,5

12,7

-1,3

12,8

-1,6

12,9

-1,9

12,9

-2,2

13,0

-2,5

target

12,9

13,3

13,7

14,0

14,4

14,7

15,1

15,5

Luxembourg

emissions

9,4

-0,2

8,9

-0,5

8,8

-0,3

8,6

-0,4

8,6

-0,2

8,6

0,0

8,6

0,2

8,6

0,5

target

9,5

9,3

9,1

8,9

8,7

8,5

8,3

8,1

Malta

emissions

1,3

0,1

1,3

0,1

1,4

0,2

0,9

-0,2

0,9

-0,2

0,9

-0,2

0,9

-0,2

0,9

-0,2

target

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

1,2

Netherlands

emissions

108,3

-14,7

97,9

-22,8

102,0

-16,4

106,7

-9,4

105,4

-8,5

104,0

-7,6

102,6

-6,7

101,2

-5,8

target

122,9

120,7

118,4

116,1

113,9

111,6

109,3

107,0

Poland

emissions

186,1

-7,5

181,5

-13,3

181,6

-14,5

188,3

-9,0

188,5

-10,1

188,7

-11,2

188,8

-12,3

189,0

-13,4

target

193,6

194,9

196,1

197,4

198,6

199,9

201,1

202,3

Portugal

emissions

38,6

-10,7

38,8

-10,8

38,6

-11,3

39,8

-10,4

39,4

-11,1

38,9

-11,8

38,5

-12,4

38,1

-13,1

target

49,3

49,6

49,9

50,1

50,4

50,7

51,0

51,2

Romania

emissions

72,7

-2,9

72,5

-4,9

70,0

-9,3

71,6

-9,5

72,9

-10,0

74,3

-10,4

75,7

-10,9

77,0

-11,3

target

75,6

77,5

79,3

81,1

82,9

84,7

86,6

88,4

Slovakia

emissions

21,1

-2,9

19,8

-4,6

20,2

-4,6

22,4

-2,7

22,5

-3,0

22,5

-3,3

22,6

-3,6

22,6

-3,9

target

24,0

24,4

24,7

25,1

25,5

25,8

26,2

26,5

Slovenia

emissions

10,9

-1,4

10,5

-1,9

10,7

-1,7

11,2

-1,2

11,1

-1,3

11,1

-1,4

11,1

-1,4

11,0

-1,5

target

12,3

12,4

12,4

12,4

12,4

12,5

12,5

12,5

Spain

emissions

200,3

-27,3

199,8

-25,9

199,4

-24,3

201,1

-20,7

202,9

-17,0

204,8

-13,2

206,8

-9,2

208,4

-5,8

target

227,6

225,6

223,7

221,8

219,9

218,0

216,1

214,2

Sweden

emissions

35,3

-6,4

34,5

-6,5

34,0

-6,4

33,7

-6,0

33,3

-5,8

32,9

-5,6

32,5

-5,3

32,1

-5,1

target

41,7

41,0

40,4

39,8

39,1

38,5

37,8

37,2

United Kingdom

emissions

339,5

-19,3

324,4

-29,8

328,7

-21,0

337,8

-7,4

333,1

-7,6

327,9

-8,2

323,3

-8,3

315,6

-11,5

target

358,7

354,2

349,7

345,2

340,7

336,1

331,6

327,1

Note: Negative gap indicates over delivery, while positive gap indicate shortfall towards ESD targets.

Source: EEA, European Commission.

(1) 2013 and 2014 ESD emissions from the 2016 ESD comprehensive review of inventory data.

(2) 2015 emissions data are approximated inventory data (Art. 8 of the MMR)

(3) 2016-2020 projected emissions in effort sharing sectors from MS with existing measures



5.Key figures for Kyoto CP1 compliance

Table 7: Initial Assigned Amount units, GHG emissions 2008-2012 (tCO2eq), and Kyoto Protocol units in the retirement account

Total quantity of Kyoto Protocol units in the retirement account

IAA

GHG emissions 2008-2012

AAUs

ERUs

RMUs

CERs

tCERs

lCERs

Total

Eu-15

19621381509

18822263095

17.368.888.639

445.838.157

302.009.951

725.166.210

1.615.811

-

18.843.518.768

 

 

 

Total quantity of Kyoto Protocol units in the retirement account

IAA

GHG emissions 2008-2012 (tCO2eq)

AAUs

ERUs

RMUs

CERs

tCERs

lCERs

Total

Austria

343.866.009

414.658.054

362.501.669

11.975.750

6.786.726

33.393.909

-

-

414.658.054

Belgium

673.995.528

626.308.776

590.701.837

9.451.546

-

26.162.846

-

-

626.316.229

Denmark

276.838.955

297.947.591

257.813.160

14.510.576

8.654.523

17.005.884

-

-

297.984.143

Finland

355.017.545

338.353.531

304.541.813

4.088.755

17.449.492

12.273.471

-

-

338.353.531

France

2.819.626.640

2.538.856.531

2.425.839.655

24.706.979

23.648.026

64.661.871

-

-

2.538.856.531

Germany

4.868.096.694

4.706.574.671

4.245.979.938

194.764.982

39.728.163

226.101.588

-

-

4.706.574.671

Greece

668.669.806

598.504.091

568.566.201

11.322.449

2.052.032

16.563.409

-

-

598.504.091

Ireland

314.184.272

308.508.846

280.189.478

4.294.121

16.291.152

6.512.114

1.221.981

-

308.508.846

Italy

2.416.277.898

2.479.638.840

2.258.521.514

46.715.521

75.276.599

98.993.939

131.267

-

2.479.638.840

Luxembourg

47.402.996

60.116.132

53.190.972

395.536

373.279

5.893.782

262.563

-

60.116.132

Netherlands

1.001.262.141

997.119.267

928.949.317

29.763.371

-

38.406.579

-

-

997.119.267

Portugal

381.937.527

362.098.075

302.650.818

4.567.634

44.760.045

10.119.578

-

-

362.098.075

Spain

1.666.195.929

1.791.980.049

1.568.312.827

65.062.121

52.780.585

105.824.516

-

-

1.791.980.049

Sweden

375.188.561

305.573.749

295.466.371

2.113.323

-

7.994.055

-

-

305.573.749

United Kingdom

3.412.080.630

3.017.236.560

2.925.663.069

22.105.493

14.209.329

55.258.669

-

-

3.017.236.560

 

 

 

Total quantity of Kyoto Protocol units in the retirement account

IAA

GHG emissions 2008-2012

AAUs

ERUs

RMUs

CERs

tCERs

lCERs

Total

Bulgaria

610.045.827

312.859.911

285.924.659

13.587.718

3.563.874

9.783.660

 

 

312.859.911

Croatia

148.778.503

144.820.156

139.023.568

487.493

5.090.172

218.923

-

-

144.820.156

Czech Republic

893.541.801

680.149.966

626.791.646

25.128.765

6.584.129

21.645.426

 

 

680.149.966

Estonia

196.062.637

95.304.517

90.835.022

4.255.338

-

214.157

-

-

95.304.517

Hungary

542.366.600

335.956.338

325.001.828

1.172.944

7.277.911

2.503.655

 

 

335.956.338

Latvia

119.182.130

56.453.901

48.478.397

490.531

6.233.333

1.251.640

 

 

56.453.901

Lithuania

227.306.177

109.786.321

97.066.552

3.477.985

5.893.563

3.348.131

-

-

109.786.321

Poland

2.648.181.038

2.006.265.534

1.947.596.833

2.061.462

27.766.419

28.840.820

 

 

2.006.265.534

Roumania

1.279.835.099

615.929.959

584.842.690

4.479.948

17.988.730

8.618.591

-

-

615.929.959

Slovakia

331.433.516

227.690.025

209.505.856

2.327.557

1.394.152

14.462.460

-

-

227.690.025

Slovenia

93.628.593

98.542.441

85.504.459

4.695.634

6.600.000

1.742.348

-

-

98.542.441

IAA

GHG emissions 2008-2012

AAUs

ERUs

RMUs

CERs

tCERs

lCERs

Total

EU (26)

26.711.003.052

23.527.233.832

21.809.460.149

508.003.532

390.402.234

817.796.021

1.615.811

-

23.527.277.837

Source: UNFCC, European Commission.

Note: IIA: Initial Assigned Amount, AAU: Assigned Amount Unit, ERU: Emission Reduction Unit, RMU: Removal Unit, CER:Certified Emission reduction, tCER:temporary Certified Emission Reduction, lCER:long-term Certified Emission Reduction.

Table 8: Total quantity of Kyoto Protocol units requested to be carried over from first to the second commitment period

AAUs

ERUs

CERs

EU15

2.124.109.368,00

0

0

AAUs

ERUs

CERs

Austria

4.945

360

2.322.185

Belgium

1.706.252

3.267.881

16.822.907

Denmark

-

-

-

Finland

14.018.572

2.917.220

6.798.242

France

187.377.092

-

-

Germany

-

-

-

Greece

37.224.272

3.493.262

4.392.299

Ireland

7.816.073

74.964

5.255.000

Italy

795.601

1.108.946

2.138.152

Luxembourg

59

-

527.006

Netherlands

-

-

3.684.180

Portugal

40.608.686

595.005

4.149.718

Spain

16.062.657

2.171.080

14.742.035

Sweden

262.565

1.225.069

7.845.487

United Kingdom

1.162.710

85.302.015

27.524.671

AAUs

ERUs

CERs

Bulgaria

259.659.629

2.284.921

913.430

Croatia

9.048.519

-

-

Czech republic

48.272.014

-

-

Estonia

19.868.929

2.127.338

440.523

Hungary

166.996.521

3.876.894

5.336.676

Latvia

28.249.726

5.317

21.550

Lithuania

71.822.887

2.327.000

246.966

Poland

411.095.255

42.388.889

42.968.220

Romania

532.594.270

17.870.726

8.692.621

Slovakia

28.624.050

-

-

Slovenia

1.248.230

-

-

AAUs

ERUs

CERs

EU (26)

4.008.628.882

171.036.887

154.821.868

Source: UNFCC, European Commission.

Note: AAU: Assigned Amount Unit, ERU: Emission Reduction Unit, CER: Certified Emission reduction.

6.Member States Climate Finance

In 2015, EU Member States submitted to the European Commission their third annual reports on financial and technology support provided to developing countries pursuant to Article 16 of the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) with information for the year 2014. The information submitted by EU Member States is in accordance with the relevant provisions of the UNFCCC, including the common formats agreed under UNFCCC for the biennial reports. In 2014, the EU and its Member States contributed EUR 14.5bn in climate finance. 6  

Table 9 : Climate finance provided to developing countries (2014). 

EU and Member States

Climate finance (€ million)

Austria

141,27

Belgium

142,74

Bulgaria

0,07

Croatia

0,03

Cyprus

0,00

Czech Republic

10,80

Denmark

222,04

Estonia

0,53

Finland

132,25

France

2921,43

Germany

5130,61

Greece

0,04

Hungary

2,71

Ireland

41,44

Italy

143,23

Latvia

0,42

Lithuania

0,26

Luxembourg

36,26

Malta

0,08

Netherlands

339,98

Poland

4,19

Portugal

9,52

Romania

0,03

Slovakia

1,23

Slovenia

2,35

Spain

498,75

Sweden

384,75

United Kingdom

1551,43

European Commission

677,01

European Investment Bank

2098,50

EU total

14493,94

Source: Reporting submitted by MS under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (EU) n 525/2013; OECD data on imputed multilateral climate related finance.

This figure includes climate finance sources from public budgets and other development financial institutions. The 2014 figure also includes climate finance from the EIB of EUR 2.1bn and OECD data on imputed multilateral contributions. The data is reported on the basis of technical guidance from the European Commission for reporting under Article 16, as discussed with Member States. Differences in reporting methodologies and in the scope of the data still exist, despite efforts by the EU and its Member States to harmonise reporting methodologies.

Types of activities

The EU and its Member States supported both activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) and adaptation to the consequences of climate change. Of all climate funding, approximately 58% was devoted to mitigation and 14% to adaptation. The remaining 28% was multi-purpose climate finance with both adaptation and mitigation objectives, including the fight against deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+).


7.Adaptation to climate change

The 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change aims at making Europe more climate-resilient. It promotes adaptation action across the EU, ensuring that adaptation considerations are addressed in all relevant EU policies (mainstreaming), promoting greater coordination, coherence and information-sharing.

In 2017, the European Commission will report to the EU Parliament and Council on the implementation of the Adaptation Strategy. This report will also include an assessment of the progress made by Member States in terms of adaptation action and hence preparedness. Progress will be assessed, inter alia, on the basis of the reports provided in 2015 by Member States within the framework of the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation. Some general trends are described below:

Adaptation planning and the identification of general risks and vulnerabilities are developed in many Member States. National adaptation strategies/actions plans have been adopted in 21 Member States and most of those who do not yet have a strategy are preparing one. In addition, several Member States are in the process reviewing their adaptation strategies and action plans. Effective horizontal coordination between relevant Ministries was beneficial in many cases: for example, in Austria, Belgium, and Hungary it has facilitated the planning for adaptation. Coordination between different levels of governance (local, regional, national) is still weak in the majority of Member States. However, there are some efforts to develop political, regulatory and technical frameworks for cities to implement adaptation measures in different Member States. Several countries have included urban adaptation in their national strategies, or have made it a standard part of priority sectors under consideration . At EU level, adaptation has been merged with mitigation efforts through the new Covenant of Mayors in a European initiative of nearly 7,000 cities. Stakeholder involvement is considered key to have a transparent, inclusive and well-informed planning process. Some countries have yet to explore in-depth involvement and increase the commitment to adaptation of private sector and civil society stakeholders. Progress, in this direction, has been achieved in some Member States, for example the UK, the Netherlands and France.

In the Member States, earmarked financing for adaptation is still more the exception than the rule. While over half of the MS have financial resources available for preliminary adaptation action (e.g. climate services, vulnerability assessments and climate research), only few (for instance Denmark, Germany and Malta) have a dedicated budget to implement adaptation action in vulnerable sectors. Public funding for adaptation often focuses on water, agriculture, forestry and human health.

The definition of solid adaptation actions and their strategic implementation is still an outstanding issue for many Member States. Further comprehensive sector vulnerability assessments should be carried out. Only few countries have specific projects/programs to implement adaptation measures as such. Due to insufficient awareness, technical capacity and resources, measures are often implemented ad hoc. Providing information to relevant stakeholders (e.g. on adaptation tools, education, guidelines) and integrating adaptation concerns into priority policies are the main instruments in this regard. Priority sectors for adaptation implementation cover a broad spectrum and include: water management and water resources, forests and forestry, agriculture, biodiversity and ecosystems, and human health.

Monitoring and Evaluation systems of adaptation have only been developed or are under development in less than half the Member States . This is partly explained by the relatively early stage in implementation of adaptation actions. The few MS that are more advanced with M&E, have mostly focused on processes as in the case of Spain and Finland, while outcome-based indicators (e.g. reductions in vulnerability to climate change) were developed by Austria and Germany. Challenges in this regard include developing outcome-based indicators and addressing knowledge gaps, such as on cost and benefits of adaptation and vulnerability at local level.

   

(1) http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030/docs/eu_trends_2050_en.pdf  For Member States that did not submit new projections in 2015, the EU Reference scenario 2013 was used for gap-filling purposes (). For more information, see Trends and Projections in Europe 2015 : http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/trends-and-projections-in-europe-2015.
(2) Member States that do not use their 3 % limit for the use of international credits in any specific year can transfer the unused part of their limit to another Member State or bank it for their own use until 2020. Member States fulfilling additional criteria (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden) may use credits from projects in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) up to an additional 1 % of their verified emissions in 2005. These credits are not bankable and transferable. A maximum of approximately 750 Mt of international credits can be used during the period from 2013 to 2020 in the ESD.
(3)  As refered to in Article 14 (3) of the MMR (EU No 525/2013)
(4)  Eight MS updated their projections in 2016 updates submissions (AT, CY, DK, FR, EL, HU, IE, LU)
(5) http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/analysis/models/docs/full_referencescenario2016report_en.pdf  
(6)

  http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/11/10-conclusions-climate-finance/  

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